Analysis On The Influencing Factors Of Corn Spot Price In Guangzhou Port

Grain is not only the necessities for people but also very important strategic materials for countries.The Corn is one of the three major crops in the world.Besides as food and feed,the corn is a significant source for industrial.The price of the corn directly affects farmers' profit and their labor enthusiasm.Furthermore it has great influence on the purchase decision of the enterprises and consumers.Guangdong province is one of the main consumption areas of the domestic corn.There are four major factors affecting the price of the corn in Guangdong province.1 the price of corn in habitat;2 the price of corn imported from other countries.3 the price of the alternatives of the corn.4 the need of the feed enterprises.In this way in order to have a deeper understanding of the country's macroeconomic regulation and maintain the stability of price,it is necessary to analyze each factor affecting the price of corn in Guangzhou port.This paper will give details of the following results:1 The author use the binary regression model to analyze demanding factors affecting the price of corn in Guangzhou port.This model shows that the breeding enterprise's need and the import sorghum's price both have significant influence on the price of corn in Guangzhou port.2 Seasonal adjustment model shows that the difference of the corn price between Dalian port and Guangzhou port has seasonal characteristics.The difference between the prices is low in April and May and the difference between the prices is high in September October and November.3 Furthermore the author use the vector autoregression model to analyze the interaction between the price of corn in Guangzhou port and the price of corn in Dalian port.The Granger test of causality is used to find that the change of the corn price growth rate in Qiqihaer in Heilongjiang province is the main reason of the change of the corn price growth rate in Guangzhou port 4 The impulse response function shows that Guangdong market is very sensitive to the prices change in the Heilongjiang province.