Study On The Counter-cyclicality Of Credit Growth Rate Of Commercial Banks In China

After the financial crisis broke out in 2008,the real economies of various countries have been affected to varying degrees,and the pro-cyclical effect of bank credit is considered to be one of the important reasons for exacerbating the crisis.With the economic downturn,commercial banks in various countries have generally tightened credit.However,commercial banks in China have expanded their credit significantly.In the fourth quarter of 2008 and the entire year of 2009,more than 10 trillion yuan of credit was invested.The cyclical characteristics of credit growth are very different from those in other countries.This phenomenon has caused widespread concern among domestic scholars.Is there a counter-cyclical effect on the credit growth of China's commercial banks? At the same time,many scholars have begun to study the causes of this phenomenon.Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign commercial bank credit theory and practice,this paper combines the macro-level and micro-level data of China's commercial banks,and uses the expanded bank sample to test the overall cyclical characteristics of commercial bank credit growth.This paper examines whether there is a difference in the cyclical characteristics of credit growth of different types of commercial banks and the reasons for this difference.This article provides more empirical evidence for the counter-cyclical research on the credit growth rate of China's commercial banks.Many scholars have confirmed that the credit growth of commercial banks in western developed market economies is generally pro-cyclical.However,for the research on the cyclical growth of commercial banks in China,scholars' research conclusions are inconsistent,and more and more studies have obtained the conclusion of credit growth counter-cyclicality in recent years.This article summarizes the relevant theories of credit cyclicality,and analyzes the possible reasons for the counter-cyclicality of credit growth of commercial banks.Then this article analyzes the credit expansion of China's commercial banks,especially during the financial crisis,and compares the credit growth rate of China's commercial banks with macroeconomic fluctuations.This article proposes two hypotheses.The first one is that the overall credit growth of China's commercial banks is counter-cyclical,and the second one is that the counter-cyclicality presented by different types of commercial banks is different.Based on the annual unbalanced panel data of 47 commercial banks in China from 2005 to 2018,this paper uses the dynamic system GMM estimation and static panel model to analyze the cyclical characteristics of the credit growth rate of our commercial banks.The empirical results show that the overall credit growth of China's commercial banks is counter-cyclical.When the sample banks are divided into large state-owned commercial banks,joint-stock commercial banks,and city commercial banks,the results show that the credit growth rates of all three types of commercial banks are counter-cyclical.But the counter cyclicality of large state-owned commercial banks is the strongest,the counter-cyclicality of joint-stock commercial banks is the second,and the counter-cyclicality of city commercial banks is the weakest.Finally,in view of the counter-cyclical situation of China's commercial bank credit growth rate,this article puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for different subjects.For commercial banks,they should optimize the credit structure and expand their business scope.For regulators,they should consider the dual superposition effect of counter-cyclical regulatory rules and the counter-cyclicality of credit growth rate of commercial banks on macroeconomic fluctuations,and implement differential supervision for different types of commercial banks.For the central bank,they should consider the dual superposition effect of counter-cyclical monetary policy and the counter-cyclicality of credit growth rate of commercial banks on macroeconomic fluctuations,and improve the flexibility and effectiveness of monetary policy.