The Debt Risk Analysis Of Yunnan Tourism From State-owned Enterprise To Central Enterprise

In recent years,the debt ratio of China's state-owned enterprises remains high,and the debt risk is increasingly serious.At the end of November 2017,the debt of state-owned enterprises exceeded 10 billion yuan,reaching 100.08 trillion yuan.By the first quarter of 2019,China's state-owned enterprises had debts of 43 billion yuan.Total soe debt quadrupled in just two years.The high debt ratio of state-owned enterprises has seriously affected the smooth operation of China's economy.One of the important reasons for the high debt of state-owned enterprises is the institutional problems of state-owned enterprises.Therefore,China must speed up the reform of state-owned enterprises.With the implementation of the policy of deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises in 2015,a wave of state-owned enterprise share reform has been set off again in China.The guideline stressed the need to prevent the loss of state-owned assets and develop a mixed-ownership economy.Subsequently,the government proposed to reduce the number of central enterprises,"slim down and improve the health" of state-owned enterprises,and improve the overall operating efficiency of state-owned enterprises by eliminating some "zombie enterprises".Based on this,strategic cooperation between central and local state-owned enterprises has become a generally accepted reform method for enterprises.Yunnan province has actively responded to the national call.By the end of 2019,a number of state-owned enterprises in Yunnan province had conducted strategic cooperation with central enterprises,mainly in the form of mergers and acquisitions of local state-owned enterprises by central enterprises.With the continuous development of society,enterprises have increasingly higher requirements for their own growth.Among them,mergers and acquisitions are one of the methods for enterprises to expand rapidly.The debt risk reduction of state-owned enterprises and the reform of state-owned enterprises are one and the same.Only by reducing the leverage ratio of state-owned enterprises and reducing the debt burden of enterprises can the reform proceed steadily.At the same time,the urgent problem to be solved in the reform of state-owned enterprises is the root of the debt risk,and the two are closely related.Therefore,through mergers and reorganizations,mixed ownership reform and other ways,the debt risk of state-owned enterprises can be defused to gain buffer time.This paper adopts the case study method,taking the changes of debt risk before and after the centralization of Yunnan Tourism as the research object,and analyzes whether the centralization of local state-owned enterprises is conducive to the alleviation of enterprise debt risk.This paper directly analyzes the changes of Yunnan Tourism debt risk after the centralization of the central government from the perspectives of total debt,debt source and term structure.The research shows that the debt situation of enterprises after the centralization of the central government has been alleviated to a certain extent,which is manifested in the decline of total debt.Debt sources tend to diversify,diversification of debt risk;The debt maturity structure has also been optimized,with an increase in the proportion of long-term borrowing and a decrease in the proportion of short-term borrowing.Secondly,the event study method is adopted to measure the market reaction by cumulative excess return rate(CAR),and to study the changes of the market reaction after the announcement of the mixed reform of Yunnan Tourism.The research shows that CAR is significantly positive within 10 days after the centralization of enterprises.It can be seen that the capital market holds a positive attitude towards the performance of Yunnan Tourism after the centralization of enterprises and is more optimistic about the future development of enterprises.At the same time the enterprise to the outside world to convey good information,so as to attract the attention of investors,but also conducive to the future development of the enterprise.On this basis,this paper use debt paying ability,profitability and development ability and operation ability index before and after analysis of Yunnan Tourism state's financial situation,study of Yunnan Tourism in large state oct management mode,its finances have largely improved,especially in the case of debt paying ability,through a series of capital means,Yunnan Tourism to get a large amount of money,to pay a large amount of debt.To further test the conclusion,this paper adopts the comprehensive index analysis method,uses Bathory model and Z indexto measure the change of Yunnan Tourism debt risk and the possibility of financial distress before and after the centralization of the central government.The research shows that the debt risk of Yunnan Tourism has been reduced after the centralization of the central government,and the possibility of falling into financial difficulties has also been reduced,which indicates that the overall situation of debt risk of Yunnan Tourism has been alleviated after the centralization of the central government,and the centralization of the central government has alleviated the debt risk of local state-owned enterprises.Based on the analysis of the current situation of debt risk of state-owned enterprises,this paper expounds the harm of high debt risk to China's economy,and then discusses the problem of debt risk resolution of state-owned enterprises from the perspective of the governance of central state-owned enterprises,so as to provide a useful reference for preventing debt risk during the reform of state-owned enterprises.Therefore,under the overall framework of the reform of state-owned enterprises in the future,the debt resolution of local state-owned enterprises can be tried through the centralization of state-owned enterprises.As the merger and acquisition of local state-owned enterprises by central enterprises is just emerging,the sample size is small,so the case study method can more clearly explain the specific operation mechanism of the central state-owned enterprises to alleviate their debt risk,and provide references for future research.