Study On The Contagion Effect Of Zombie Enterprises In Credit Guarantee Network

In the context of the new economic normal,zombie companies are one of the important issues that plague the Chinese economy.Zombie companies are those that have long been in a state of loss and rely on the “transfusion” of banks or local governments to survive.The existence of zombie enterprises will lead to resource distortions and investment crowding.It has aroused widespread concern in the academic world and reached a consensus to gradually let zombie companies clear out,but whether zombie enterprises will cause zombies of normal enterprises,that is,zombie enterprises.Contagion effects The academic community has yet to reach a unified conclusion.We believe that enterprises will inevitably encounter financing problems in the course of business.In order to obtain credit resources,enterprises often use social network relationships to find third-party guarantee companies to guarantee,and ultimately form a guarantee network.When the zombie enterprise is above this chain,it is not clear whether the zombie enterprise will have an infectious effect that affects the stable operation of other companies and has a large negative impact on economic development.Therefore,in this context,this paper uses a combination of theoretical and empirical methods to explore the adverse effects of zombie companies from the perspective of infectious effects.At the level of theoretical research,firstly,the relevant theoretical basis is analyzed from the perspective of guarantee network,including information asymmetry theory and interest encroachment theory,and further analyzes the operation mechanism of guarantee network according to the guarantee chain model.Secondly,it summarizes and analyzes the existence of the contagion effect of zombie enterprises in the guarantee network,and believes that enterprises with high degree of external guarantees and non-state-owned enterprises will be more affected by the contagion effect.Finally,the paper analyzes the transmission channels of the zombie enterprise's contagion effect in the guarantee network,and believes that the contagion effect risk mainly spreads through the negative effects on the company's cash flow and refinancing ability.At the empirical research level,since the research object of this paper is to join the enterprise within the guarantee network,this paper first obtains the original guarantee contract information of the listed company from Wind;then selects the original guarantee contract and selects those listed companies and listed companies.In the end,the guarantee contract information between the listed companies is manually aggregated from the annual level to obtain the information of the listed company guarantee network for each year.This article refers to a network of three or more companies as a guarantee network.In the end,a total of 721 listed companies were sampled.Secondly,this paper uses the excessive loan method to identify the above-mentioned samples of zombie enterprises,and analyzes the distribution characteristics of zombie enterprises.On the basis of theoretical analysis and data calculation,this paper establishes the benchmark regression model,heterogeneity model and infection mechanism model to empirically test the existence of the zombie enterprise contagion effect in the guarantee network,the heterogeneity of the enterprise and the mechanism of action.The empirical results show that:(1)the contagion effect of zombie enterprises in the guarantee network does exist,and the contagion effect will increase the probability that the normal enterprises in the guarantee network will become zombie enterprises;(2)the influence of the contagion effect is different for different enterprises,that is,The effect of the contagion effect on non-state-owned enterprises and enterprises with higher degree of external guarantees is greater;(3)The contagion effect of zombie enterprises in the guarantee network mainly affects the cash holding and refinancing ability of normal enterprises.From the empirical results of the article,for the problem of zombie enterprises in the guarantee network,the government must first improve the financial ecological environment,expand the financing channels of enterprises,and secondly accelerate the reform of the performance appraisal system and reduce the incentives for local officials to intervene in the operation of enterprises.Finally,financial institutions such as banks should strengthen pre-lending and post-lending investigations to prevent the occurrence of malicious guarantees.The research in this paper enriches the research content of zombie enterprises from the perspective of social network,and demonstrates the negative impact of zombie enterprises from a new perspective.Secondly,the research in this paper supplements the economic consequences of the guarantee network and provides ideas for how to better manage the zombie enterprises.That is,for government departments,it is important to clean up and dispose of existing zombie enterprises,but it is equally important to prevent normal enterprises from being "infected" into new zombie enterprises and to promote supply-side structural reforms.