Research On The Impact Of Debt Scale On Local Debt Risk

Fiscal fund allocation efficiency is the important contents and fundamental guarantee of the sustainable development of regional economy and finance,and is also the inner core of the local government debts growth in scale and the inflation local government debts risk.Based on the fiscal efficiency perspective,this paper rediscusses the correlate impact and dependency conditions of the local government debts scale and risk.The theory of debt risk mechanism shows that the current financial system and the functions of government in our country,the accelerated process of local governments' development financing and capital debenture leads to the continuous expansion of debt scale.If the effectiveness of fiscal capital allocation cannot be guaranteed,the government's financial operation will be difficult,local government debts risk will be inflated and the goal of economic sustainable development will not be achieved.This paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)from 2008 to 2017 for empirical research,we found that:First of all,after 2010,the allocation efficiency of fiscal funds in China decreased year by year,only 16.67 per cent of the total annual average was "effective".Among regions,the central region has the highest efficiency,followed by the eastern region,and the western region has the lowest efficiency.In 2017,except Yunnan,all the “inefficient” regions showed The mismatch between local government financial expenditure and regional economic development and social function leads to the loss and waste of financial funds.Secondly,it is found in the further examination of the scale of new local government debts and the risks of local government debts.First,the influence and relationship between the scale of new local government debts and the local government debts risk may change with conditions.But the efficiency of the allocation of fiscal funds has a significant effect on suppression of the expansion between the scale of new local government debts and the risks of local government debts.Second,under the financial capital allocation efficiency,it is possible to control the expansion of local government debt risk by the level of regional marketization,the degree of trade openness,the degree of decentralization of local governments,the level of economic development,the change of industrial structure,the urbanization level,the financial deepening degree and other exogenous dependence conditions.Third,according to the classification of local government debt structure,general debt is consistent with the research conclusion of total local government debt.However,the research on the relationship between special debt and local government debt risk is more complex and difficult because of its own particularity.