Research On Investment Risk Early Warning Of Listed Companies In Information Technology Industry Based On State Space Model

Under the background of high-quality economic development stage and supply-side structural reform,listed companies in the information technology industry,as strategic emerging companies in China,need to invest frequently in order to maintain their core competitiveness and achieve sustainable development.As an inevitable companion to investment activities,investment risk is formed through long-term accumulation.Once it breaks out,it will lead to the premature investment expenditure sinking into the sea,and even into the embarrassing situation of bankruptcy liquidation.Therefore,establishing a long-term effective investment risk warning model and scientifically identifying and predicting investment risk can not only warn listed companies in the information technology industry to adopt corresponding prevention and control strategies in a timely manner,but also correctly guide the investment direction of listed companies in the information technology industry to maximize investment returns.This paper is based on the investment risk early warning theory.According to the investment risk characteristics of listed companies in the information technology industry,the state space model,principal component analysis method and matrix positioning technology are used to construct the “investment risk early warning indicators selection?investment risk early warning threshold definition?investment risk early warning model construction?investment risk early warning positioning design?investment risk early warning empirical research”.On this basis,the paper firstly selects the early warning indicators that significantly identify the investment risk,synthesizes them and defines the investment risk early warning threshold.Secondly,combined with the spatial characteristics of the investment risk early warning state,this paper predicts the investment risk and tests the effectiveness of the early warning.According to the forecast results,the investment risk warning matrix is designed and the investment risk is positioned.Finally,the model is applied to the actual data of the listed companies in the information technology industry,and the specific prevention and control path of investment risk is proposed.The main contents of this paper include:(1)Selection of investment risk early warning indicators.This paper designs the corresponding risk early warning indicators from the perspective of investment cost risk and investment return risk,and selects the indicators that meet the needs through “index preprocessing?normality test?significance test” to establish an investment risk early warning indicator system.(2)Define the investment risk early warning threshold.In this paper,based on the principal component analysis method,the investment risk early warning comprehensive index and the design investment risk alert judgment mode are made,and the investment risk early warning threshold is divided.(3)Construct an early warning model of investment risk.Based on the state space model,this paper analyzes the spatial characteristics of the investment risk early warning state,determines the state equation and the observation equation,then uses the Kalman filter method to estimate the investment risk early warning comprehensive index,realizes the function of predicting investment risk,and uses the classification to identify the error rate method and the minimum mean square error to verify the validity of the warning.(4)Positioning investment risk.Based on the matrix positioning technology,this paper designs the investment risk warning matrix with the investment cost risk early warning comprehensive index and the investment return risk early warning comprehensive index as the orthogonal coordinate axes,and determines the positioning display rules through the form of the warning signal light.(5)Empirical analysis of investment risk.This paper takes the information technology industry listed companies as the research object,and takes ST company and its matching company as the research samples,and divides the whole early warning stage into: training stage,inspection stage and early warning stage.Then the paper uses the state space model to predict its future investment risk status,and proposes corresponding prevention and control paths based on the cause of investment risk.The innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper attempts to construct an investment risk early warning system by means of state space model,in order to determine the possibility of risk explosion before the investment risk breaks out and achieve the effect of pre-warning.(2)This paper attempts to reduce the investment risk prediction noise by Kalman filtering to improve the efficiency and accuracy of investment risk prediction.(3)This paper attempts to use the investment risk warning matrix to visualize the investment risk and explore the root causes of the investment risk problem,in order to provide the company with scientific and feasible investment risk warning model and technical tools.