| Bulk commodity is a kind of basic industrial raw material that can be widely used.Its price fluctuates frequently,but there are many factors that affect the price fluctuation trend of bulk commodity.China's economy is in the process of medium and high-speed development.The demand for bulk commodity in all walks of life is huge,and the sharp fluctuation of its price has an impact on the production management and even social stability of China's industrial enterprises It has a far-reaching impact.It is of great significance for the inventory management and investment analysis of industrial enterprises to study the trend of commodity price fluctuation and analyze the main influencing factors of commodity price fluctuation.With the maturity of cycle theory,the trend of commodity price fluctuation and the theory of economic cycle become more and more close.Therefore,from the perspective of economic cycle,this paper chooses inventory cycle,which is an important short cycle theory,as the influencing factor of commodity price fluctuation,and uses screw steel as the representative commodity to analyze the impact of inventory cycle on the price fluctuations of commodities.In the analysis of the impact of inventory cycle on the price fluctuation of screw steel,the following operations are carried out first: combing and analyzing the relevant theories of economic cycle,inventory cycle and commodity price fluctuation;combing the observation indicators of inventory cycle;taking the ex factory price index of industrial enterprises as the observation and division indicators of inventory cycle,dividing China into four inventory weeks Based on the output gap index obtained by X12 seasonal adjustment and HP Filtering,the inventory cycle of China is divided.Then,the economic driving factors of the inventory cycle divided by the output gap are discussed in detail,which shows the rationality of the inventory cycle divided by the output gap.Then,taking the inventory cycle divided by the output gap as the time orientation,the historical trend of the price fluctuation of screw steel and the operation of the inventory cycle are analyzed.After that,in order to further study and analyze the impact of inventory cycle on commodity price volatility,this paper uses output gap data,rebar price as the proxy variables of inventory cycle and commodity price,and uses the auto-regressive distribution lag error correction model(ARDL-ECM)to conduct empirical analysis on the relevant time series.The results of theoretical analysis and empirical test show that: the inventory cycle has a significant periodic impact on the price fluctuation of screw steel,and the research results can be extended to the whole bulk commodity.In the research on the price fluctuation of bulk commodity,the inventory cycle can be used as an important factor to analyze the price fluctuation of bulk commodity.Finally,this paper gives some suggestions and investment guidance on the inventory management of industrial enterprises: we should make rational use of the operation rules related to the inventory cycle,and gradually establish and improve the long-term observation and early warning mechanism of the inventory cycle,which will help the industrial enterprises of our country to improve the level of inventory control,reduce the management cost,improve the profit rate,and ensure the steady development of the industrial enterprises of our country;investment When investing in bulk commodities,the investors should select the main contracts with large trading volume and high trading activity as the investment targets,grasp the conversion time point of the four stages of the inventory cycle,carefully invest in bulk commodities,select the conversion node from active de-stocking to passive de-stocking in the inventory cycle,choose to buy,and on the node from active re stocking to passive re stocking,the market The demand starts to decline,so it's wise to sell at this time. |
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