Research On The Measurement Of Real Estate Risk Under Macro-control And Its Coordination With Economic Environment

Compared with foreign countries,Chinese real estate has a short development history and many problems remain in the market operation mechanism,but it still has a significant boost to the development of the national economy.In order to make the real estate market run smoothly and healthily,the Chinese government has adopted a series of intervention measures.The frequent release of macro-control policies has brought the risks of real estate research into the focus of scholars.Economic environment,as the basis of real estate development and operation,its coordination with real estate risks is an issue worthy of attention.In order to explore the impact of macro-control policies on the two subsystems risk of real estate companies and the market,and their degree of coordinated development with the economic environment.After combing the existing research results,the article conducts research along the basic ideas of risk management.First,the existing risk factors of real estate in China are identified,and the transmission paths of each risk factor are analyzed.Secondly,we combined the entropy weight-TOPSIS method and the stress test method to construct a overlap risk evaluation model for real estate companies,and used the entropy weight method to evaluate the risk factors affecting the real estate market.Thirdly,under the concept of coupling,the article builds an analysis model,from the superposition of two systems to the analysis of the coordinated coordination of three systems,to explore the coordinated development of real estate enterprise risk,market risk and economic environment.Finally,the article proposes prevention and control measures for controlling real estate companies and market risks.Empirical analysis shows that the macro-control policies can affect the three systems,which is real estate enterprise risk,market risks,and the overall coordination of the system,and it is necessary to analyze real estate enterprises as a micro-level subsystem.The specific conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)Two different evaluation methods for policy risk indicate that the restrictive policy has the greatest impact,followed by the real estate tax collection policy,and the land policy has the smallest impact.Supporting role.(2)The risks of real estate companies are positively related to the risks of regulation and control policies.The total risk after superposition is at a "medium to low" level and is greatly affected by policy regulation.(3)The factors that have the greatest impact on the real estate market are price risk,followed by liquidity risk,and inventory risk again,and policy risk has the least impact.The short-term implementation of the policy is stronger than the long-term,and the market's ability to respond is strong.(4)The three systems of real estate enterprise risk,market risk and economic environment are in a healthy coupling stage at a high development level,and the coordination degree of the three systems is in a state of fluctuation and rising.Among them,the economic environment has the greatest impact on the overall coordination status of the system,followed by real estate company risk,and the market risk has the weakest impact.(5)Macro-control policies have different degrees of impact on real estate companies and the market.The first round of control policies has a greater impact on the real estate market,while the second round of control policies has a more significant impact on real estate companies.It has a positive effect on the coordinated development of the three systems.