The Impact Mechanism And Empirical Tests Of Uncertainty On The Effects Of Monetary Policy

During the new normal period,economic growth lacked momentum and output growth slowed down.The central bank repeatedly lowered the benchmark interest rate and frequently intervened in the macro economy,leading to higher uncertainty.Uncertainty will affect the expectations of economic entities on the future economic situation and change their economic behavior,thus affecting the effectiveness of monetary policy.Incorporating uncertainty into the monetary policy framework to study the impact of policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty on the effectiveness of monetary policy will help monetary authorities to better operate monetary policy.The effect of monetary policy is divided into macro level and micro level.From the macro level,monetary policy effect refers to the degree of influence of policy implementation on macroeconomic variables such as total output and price level;from the micro level,monetary policy effect Refers to the impact of monetary policy on the economic behavior of micro-subjects through certain channels of transmission.This paper constructs the TVP-SV-VAR model,analyzes the impact of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables after adding uncertainty,and examines the impact of uncertainty on the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy.According to the nature of the industry and the nature of equity,the PVAR model is used to study the adjustment effect of monetary policy on the investment behavior of characteristic enterprises after adding uncertainty,and to examine the impact of uncertainty on the micro-effect of monetary policy.It is found that:(1)At more times,the negative effect of policy uncertainty on prices is greater than the negative effect on economic growth.Financial market uncertainty has a significant negative impact on prices in the short term,and will also inhibit economic growth in the long run.After adding uncertainty,the effects of money supply policy and interest rate policy on macroeconomic policies of economic growth and price are weakened,and policy uncertainty has a greater impact on the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy than financial market uncertainty.(2)Uncertainty has a heterogeneous impact on corporate investment of different industries.Under the influence of uncertainty,the effect of monetary policy instruments to 9 industries such as manufacturing,wholesale and retail,and leasing industry may not meet the policy expectations or can't last long.(3)Uncertainty has a heterogeneous impact on corporate investment of different equity nature.Compared with state-owned enterprises,the restraining effect of uncertainty on corporate investment is more obvious in non-state-owned enterprises.Further,under the restraining effect of uncertainty,the effect of monetary policy instruments on non-state-owned enterprises is weaker than that of state-owned enterprises.Finally,based on the above conclusions,this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations.The government should maintain the soundness of economic policies,improve the mechanism to maintain the stability of the financial market,scientifically guide the directional flow of funds,and promote the rational adjustment of the industrial structure.