Study On The Default Factors Of Mortgage Loans Of Small And Medium-sized Enterprises In E Bank

As an important tool of preventing risk of commercial banks,the mortgage guarantees have been paid much attention.The collaterals become a powerful weapon for commercial bank to avoid default risks,especially of small and medium-size enterprises(SMEs)with credit imperfection,irregular statements,and high bankruptcy rate,for their first source of repayment is unstable.Since 2016,China has entered a new phase of economic downturn,which coincides with financial deleveraging,China-US trade war and other issues.Mortgage guarantee is no longer a good risk-prevention barrier for commercial banks,and SEMs' defaults happen frequently.Under the circumstances,what are the factors significantly affecting the default risks of loans?In order to figure out those factors among SMEs,this paper,based on previous literature,considers on mortgages business of SMEs in Sichuan area of E commercial bank as the sample.We divide them into two groups,i.e.defaulted and non-default,for statistical analysis and conduct Logistic model on selected samples for empirical study and hypothesis test from multi-dimension aspects,such as registered capital,enterprise scale,import and export qualification,the existence of board of directors(BOD),ownership of business site,external guarantee,the consistency of legal entity and controller,mortgage approval rate,and etc.The conclusion is that the enterprise scale significantly affects default of SMEs,and the default probability of medium enterprises is higher than that of small ones;the existence of BOD has significant effects,i.e.higher default probability among companies with BOD;the involvement of real estate business significantly impacts on SME's default and the involving enterprises with lower default probabilities than the non-involving;SMEs with split loans have significantly greater impacts on default probability;the impact of the existence of external guarantee on default probability is significant at 10%,and,specifically,companies with external security have higher default probability;but we do not find significant effects of other factors.Finally,the author propose some recommending policies and suggestions from different perspectives.