Research On The Impact Of Intermediate Goods Trade And Final Goods Trade On The Interaction Of International Business Cycle Comovement

There are two important phenomena in the world economy today: First,the international division of labor has realized a major transformation from inter-industry division of labor to intra-industry division of labor to intra-product division of labor.The contribution of intermediate goods trade and final product trade to total trade growth does not exist.Symmetry;second,the linkage of the world economic cycle has significantly increased.Based on the above two phenomena,this paper conceives the impact of two trades on the linkage of economic cycles and the impact differences.The research ideas in this paper are divided into two steps: The first step is to derive the intermediate goods trade and the final product trade in the dynamic model framework of the two countries.The dynamic theory simulates the influence of the intermediate goods trade and the final product trade on the economic cycle linkage;In the second step,we use the 2000-2014 World Input-Output Table to empirically study the impact of intermediate trade and final trade on the linkage of the international economic cycle and its impact from the perspective of the world and China.Among them,the world perspective divides the total sample into three types of countries according to the World Bank’s classification criteria: developed and developed countries,developing and developing countries,and developed and developing countries.For the three types of countries,the OLS and 2SLS estimation methods are used to empirically return the intermediate goods trade and the final product trade in different categories of countries.The impact on the linkage of the international economic cycle and its impact,and the test results are tested for robustness..The empirical analysis of China’s perspective is to divide China’s trading partner countries into China and developing countries,China and developed countries according to the level of economic development and regional differences;China,Europe and the United States,China and Asia-Pacific countries.For China and different trading partners,OLS and 2SLS estimation methods are used to empirically return the impact of intermediate trade and final product trade on the linkage of international economic cycle and its impact,and establish preliminary research conclusions.Finally,a conservative test is conducted on the conclusions of the Chinese perspective.Based on the above research,the paper concludes that the theoretical simulation analysis finds that the intermediate trade and the final trade can all transmit the linkage of the international economic cycle,and the greater the bilateral trade volume between the two trades,the stronger the economic cycle linkage between the two countries..The empirical analysis concludes that:World perspective:(1)From the perspective of the world as a whole,intermediate trade and final trade have a significant positive impact on the linkage of the world economic cycle.(2)Both trades play a significant role in developing countries,developed countries and developed countries,while final trade in developing countries plays a significant role.China’s perspective:(1)From the perspective of China and the world,the intermediate goods trade and the final product trade both positively and significantly convey the linkage between China and the world’s economic cycle,but the intermediate goods trade has a deeper impact.(2)When China’s trading partner countries are developing countries,intermediate goods trade plays a significant economic cycle;when China’s trading partner countries are developed countries,both intermediate goods and final goods trade play a positive and significant economy.Periodic conduction.(3)When China’s trading partner countries are Asia-Pacific countries,neither intermediate goods trade nor final product trade can be used as the main transmission channel of economic cycle linkage;when China’s trading partner countries are Europe,America and other countries,the middle of this time Trade in goods and trade in final products are the main transmission paths of the economic cycle linkage.This conclusion is exactly the opposite of when trading partners are Asia-Pacific countries.The dynamic theory model of the two countries combines the production heterogeneity EK model,deduces the trade of intermediate goods and the final product trade,and studies the trade conduction problem of the economic cycle through dynamic theory simulation,and expands the theoretical research in the field of economic cycle linkage.An empirical analysis of the differences in the impact of the two trades on the economic cycle linkage complements empirical research in this area.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper proposes policy recommendations from the perspective of the world and China,and provides policy references for the sustainable and steady development of China’s economy and the common development of the world economy.