| In 2020,the government proposed to build a new development pattern featuring mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles at the first time,which has made a new layout for stabilizing economic and social development and opening to the world.Opening to the world is one of the most distinctive features of in contemporary China,and is also a basic state policy of China."Driving the reform and promoting the development with the opening-up” is a successful practice of China’s reform and development.In order to improve the level of opening up and form a new pattern of all-round opening up,we need to allocate market resources more effectively and make full use of overseas capital.Facing the integration of global economy,stable external capital flow is an important guarantee for China to deepen reform and opening up.As an important part of international circulation,foreign trade plays an important role in stabilizing capital flows and helping deepen reform and opening up.How to better dredge domestic circulation is of great significance to stabilize the capital flow and improve the long-term effective allocation of capital.In addition,positive capital flows and a stable exchange rate are conducive to companies in international trade.Therefore,the smooth operation of the domestic and international dual cycles requires the coordination of capital flow policies and trade policies.Firstly,since the 1990 s,the process of global integration has accelerated.On the one hand,developed countries gradually transfer backward industries to developing countries,and the developing countries produce and export products to developed countries.Meanwhile,developed countries also export their advanced equipment and technologies to developing countries.International trade has flourished.In the process of trade expansion,the demand for currency in cross-border trade,such as pricing,settlement,insurance and savings,also increased rapidly,driving developing countries to gradually open their capital accounts and build a modern financial system.On the other hand,in the 21 st century,the structure of international capital flows also changed significantly.For example,For example,the proportion of traditional forms such as foreign direct investment has gradually declined,and the proportion of securities capital investment and flow has increased significantly.Due to its good liquidity,securities capital can flow into developing countries quickly,thereby increasing the capital account balance,helping economic and trade growth and exchange rate stability.However,the close relationship between trade and capital flows not only helps developing countries to integrate into the international community quickly and improve their economic growth rate,but also affects their own changes and even has side effects.For instance,in the Asian financial crisis of 1997,the exposure of financial risks eventually led to a large outflow of capital out of the Asian market,especially securities capital,the exchange rate level fluctuated sharply,trade fell sharply,and the economies of Asian countries were hit hard.Nowadays,the rise of global protectionism and the Sino-US trade war have aroused new research interests in international trade and international capital flows,especially international securities capital flows(Auray et al.,2020;Amiti,et al.,2020;Ding et al.,2018).Second,although almost all countries involved in international trade and international securities capital flows,the characteristics of both are not only the quantity,but also the practical economic significance behind the quantity.We can quantify the status of a country in international trade and securities capital flow,and then describe the characteristics of transactions between countries and build the network structure of international trade and capital flow.This structure not only reflects the number,but also reflects the relationship between countries,structural stability and other characteristics.The study of the relationship between these two network structures can help us understand the influence mechanism and results of a country’s opening up policies to the world and better deal with the current international situation.Third,compared with how international securities capital flows affect international trade,it is more important for China to develop Chinese capital market through international trade and other means,stabilize foreign capital expectations and gradually realize the internationalization of RMB.Therefore,it is more valuable to study the transmission mechanism of international trade for capital flows.International trade and international securities capital flow are also affected by the impact of external macro state,but the impact has shown great differences in history.In other words,the impact of external macro state on a country needs to go through a specific transmission mechanism,which may vary from country to country.For example,during the Asian financial crisis and the subprime mortgage crisis,China was far less affected than Japan,South Korea and other countries with higher external dimensions.Whether the international communication characteristics,especially trade characteristics,would have a significant impact is the key issue of this study.Fourth,international securities investors are relative in global asset allocation,most of which are relative income funds with small position changes and large intercountry allocation changes.This kind of capital flow not only influenced by the "pull" and "push" factors,but also affected by the characteristics of different countries.For example,by comparing how the characteristics of the invested countries affect the expected rate of return and risk of asset allocation,investment decisions on the allocation of capital ratio among countries can be formed.Since international trade and international securities capital flows are of great significance to a country’s financial and economic stability,how to achieve steady development,avoid and reduce risks according to their mutual relations has become the main issue of international trade and international securities capital flows.By combing the existing relevant literature,it is found that there is a lack of research on the long-term and short-term relationship and structural relationship between international trade and international securities capital,and few literatures explore how the comparative characteristics between countries affect the relative allocation mechanism of international securities investors from the micro perspective.In addition,exogenous business cycle and financial cycle are important impact factors of international capital flows.There is little research on how to construct business and financial cycles and how these cyclical changes affect the mechanisms of international trade and international equity capital flows.Based on this,this paper carries out a systematic analysis of the interrelationship between international trade and international securities capital flows.First,we used data at the national level to study the interrelationships between international trade and international securities capital flows,and used the cointegration test,the panel fully modified OLS and the Granger causality test to study their long-term and short-term relationships.Secondly,based on simple flow data,we have constructed an international trade network and an international equity capital flow network,and defined and quantified the position of countries within the network.Using the cointegration test,the panel fully modified OLS and the Granger causality test,we investigated the long-term and short-term relationship between the two network status of a country.Finally,for the relative allocation behavior of international investors,using the data on the fund level,with characteristics of trade relations between China and its trading partners as the main explanatory variables,we use fixed effect panel model to analyze the characteristics of trade relations how to influence the international investors in the allocation of differences between the two countries,in order to jump out of the traditional category of "push" and "pull" factors and study the mechanism of international investors’ capital flowing out of some countries and into some countries from the theory of asset allocation,risk preference and asymmetric information.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,there is a robust correlation between international trade and international equity capital flows in the long and short term.In the long term,this robust correlation varies significantly between countries.The transmission mechanism of international trade and international securities capital flows is difference because of country.In the short run,international securities capital flow is a significant leading indicator of international trade,while vice versa.Secondly,in the long run,there is a positive long-term equilibrium between a country’s position in the international trade network and the international capital flow network.The more important a country is in the international trade network,the higher it is in the international capital flow network.Moreover,there was no significant difference in the robust correlation between countries,indicating that the network structure of international trade and international capital flows was remarkably stable at the macro level.In the short term,the change of a country’s importance in the international capital flow network influence the change of its importance in the international trade network in the short term,while the change of a country’s importance in the international trade network does not lead to the change of its importance in the international capital flow network.Therefore,the empirical results of the two network structures are similar to the empirical results of the flow data.Finally,we take the relationship between China and relevant trading partners as the main research object.The study shows that a higher degree of trade substitution between the countries increases the deviation degree of fund allocation between China and its trading partners in the case of other conditions unchanged.When there is a high degree of coincidence between the export products of one country and the import products of another country,which means that the trade complementarity between the two countries is relatively large,the deviation degree of fund allocation between the two countries can be effectively reduced.Further research shows that the real economic cycle and financial cycle of the United States have significant moderating effects on the impact of trade characteristics on capital flows.Specifically,first of all,on the economic cycle to the spillover effect of trade between the two countries,we think that the entity economic cycle would increase the fund investment deviation between China and trading partners;in contrast,he United States would reduce the financial cycle of trade of China and the role of fund configuration deviation between trading partners.Secondly,in view of the impact of the US economic cycle on the spillover effect of the trade complementarity between the two countries,the research finds that the US real economic cycle would amplify the impact of the trade complementarity on the country fund allocation deviation spillover effect,while the US financial cycle would restrain the negative spillover effect of the trade complementarity on the global fund allocation deviation. |
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