| In recent years,with growing development of the cultural industry,the concept of "Pan-entertainment IP" has become more and more popular.The essence of Pan-entertainment IP is a high-quality copyright that has a certain value basis and can break through native platforms for multi-form development.It may develop into online literature,film and television,games,animation and peripheral derivatives.However,the existing literature is relatively lacking in research on how the Pan-entertainment IP operates,why it is profitable,and what is its maximum value.Besides,not even a consensus and complete valuation system has been reached up till now.Therefore,the paper focuses on the correlation and interaction among Pan-entertainment industries and then forms a valuation index system based on the value drivers of Pan-entertainment IP.What's more,a gray neural network rolling forecasting model is used in revenue prediction,combining the consideration of life cycle and related value drivers in predicting the duration of return as well as the particular consideration of operational risk in the discount rate.First of all,based on the research of Pan-entertainment IP theories and value drivers,combined with domestic and foreign literature on IP value,starting from the interaction among different forms of Pan-entertainment IP,the essay summarizes the Pan-entertainment IP value drivers and forms a valuation index system based on the value drivers of Pan-entertainment IP.The paper believes that the Pan-entertainment IP value drivers can be summarized as a series of indicators in five dimensions,which are the external environment of IP,the native value of IP,the value of operation and development on IP,the value of IP linkage,and the value of IP authorization.For more details,the IP external environment dimension mainly considers the impact of economic environment,policy environment and social public opinion on IP value.The native value of IP revolves around copyright,the core element of Pan-entertainment IP,and mainly focuses on two aspects: differentiation and IP content regeneration capabilities.The value of operation and development on IP,which is key in current copyright transactions,depends on the degree of development of IP,fans,brands,marketing models,profit models,IP operators and so on.The main analysis is about another core element of Pan-entertainment IP,the fans,and mainly focuses on how IP can expand the fan pool and how to evaluate the quality of fans.Then the derived value of Pan Entertainment IP is mainly analyzed through the two dimensions of IP linkage value and IP authorization value.The value of IP linkage mainly evaluates IP conversion among different forms and fields and its conversion effect.The IP authorization value mainly refers to the value created by IP's cross-border cooperation,combining IP with its derivatives.Then,the gray neural network rolling prediction model,which is optimized by combining the gray prediction model and BP neural network,is used for revenue forecast to improve the accuracy of the prediction.In this model,the gray prediction model is used to predict the preliminary return and the corresponding residual sequence is formed.Then the BP neural network rolling prediction model is used to modify the residual of the gray prediction model.Finally,the combination of the above two sequence forms the required income prediction sequence in this paper.Last but not least,a case study of the legendary mobile game IP was processed with a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis.The index system is integrated into the analysis of the revenue,duration of revenue and return on investment of the IP.The valuation result is compared with the valuation of the Glory of Kings,and then the source of the gap is analyzed and corresponding suggestions are made.Taking into account the short life cycle of mobile games and the adequacy of data,this article uses monthly data to predict the revenue during the forecast period and predicts subsequent revenue based on its life cycle to improve the accuracy of the forecast.Its market value is approximately 4.677 billion RMB on August 31,2018,but the potential IP value evaluation of similar IP,Glory of Kings,has exceeded 30 billion RMB in 2018.This is mainly due to factors at five levels.Firstly,in the IP external environment dimension,more historical elements and traditional cultural elements are incorporated into the Glory of Kings,which can obtain support from national policies.Secondly,at the IP native value dimension,the theme of Glory of Kings is more inclusive and reproducible,and it has taken full advantage of this,using UGC content to feed back IP and opening gameplay,achieving its stronger regeneration ability.Thirdly,in the value of operation and development on IP dimension,the Glory of Kings relies on WeChat and QQ,and its fan pool is much larger than the legendary old players that the legendary mobile game IP relies on.Finally,in the dimension of IP linkage value and IP derived value,the construction of Glory of Kings' ecosystem is much better than the legendary mobile game.And the effect on the operation of IP itself and the extension of its life cycle is also very obvious.So this paper recommends that the legendary mobile game IP should supply from the demands on the one hand,so that users can participate in the creation of the game and improve the regeneration ability;on the other hand,it should attach importance to both game experience and commercialization,creating a relatively fair playing environment.The valuation index system based on the value drivers of Pan-entertainment IP can theoretically enrich the Pan-entertainment IP valuation research in the Internet era,provide new ideas for the identification of the intangible asset in the merger cost allocation.And in practice,it can also provide a reference for IP pricing,promote IP the development of value and help the development of the Pan-entertainment ecosystem and the securitization of online copyright. |
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