The Empirical Study On The Impact Of Monetary Policy Uncertainty On Enterprises' Technological Innovation

Nowadays,innovation has become the first driving force for economic development.Since the global financial crisis in 2008,countries around the world have frequently adjusted their monetary policies in order to ensure sustained and steady economic growth.The frequent adjustment of monetary policy brings uncertainty,affects the business environment of the enterprises,increases the difficulty of their decision-making,and affects the technological innovation of enterprises.Therefore,studying the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on enterprises' technological innovation and proposing policy recommendations to deal with the adverse effects have strong practical and theoretical significance.What kind of reaction will the technological innovation have in the case of frequent adjustment of monetary policy? What is the difference between the different types of enterprises? Which factors will adjust the relationship? In the face of these problems,this thesis carries out the following research:First of all,this thesis summarizes the related research on monetary policy uncertainty and technological innovation by combing the literature to find the macro-financial research about technological innovation is less.Besides,in the studies of macroeconomic policies,most of them are based on monetary policy itself,but few of them links monetary policy uncertainty with enterprises' technological innovation behavior and conducts in-depth research.Therefore,according to the research status,this thesis analyzes the possible impact of monetary policy uncertainty on enterprises' technological innovation and possible adjusting factors,and then proposes corresponding assumptions.Secondly,in the empirical research,this thesis takes 2192 listed companies in 2009-2018 as the research sample,using the fixed effect model of panel data regression,testing the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on enterprises' technological innovation activities and whether there is heterogeneity in enterprises with different property rights and regional locations.Further,the sunk cost,institutional investors' holdings,financing constraints and market competition degree are selected as the adjusting factors.Then the cross-term items of monetary policy uncertainty and related adjusting variables are included in the regression model to test the adjusting effects.This thesis draws the following conclusions:(1)The rising uncertainty of monetary policy will have an adverse effect on enterprises' technological innovation.Comparing with the state-owned enterprises and eastern enterprises,non-state-owned enterprises and midwestern enterprises are more affected by the uncertainty of monetary policy.(2)From the perspective of real options,enterprises with high sunk cost tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude in the face of uncertainty,are more cautious to monetary policy uncertainty;institutional investors can effectively coordinate the changes of external environment and technological innovation activities,and help enterprises to reduce innovation activities with high probability of failure when monetary policy uncertainly rises.(3)From the perspective of financing constraints,monetary policy uncertainty has a stronger inhibitory effect on the innovation activities of high-finance-constrained enterprises.(4)From the perspective of the market competition,enterprises in the fierce competitive environment are more sensitive to changes in the external environment,and the responses to monetary policy uncertainty are more pronounced.Finally,based on the empirical results,this thesis proposes policy recommendations from the monetary authorities and enterprises to deal with the adverse effects of monetary policy uncertainty on enterprises' technological innovation,in order to provide reference for improving China's monetary policy operation and the technological innovation level of enterprises.The innovations of this thesis are:(1)Exploring the impact of monetary policy uncertainty rather than monetary policy itself on technological innovation activities of enterprises,and examining the heterogeneity of the impact with different property rights and regional locations.(2)Exploring the adjusting factors that affect the relationship between monetary policy uncertainty and enterprises' technological innovation from multiple perspectives.Based on the existing theoretical framework,this thesis examines the adjusting factors from the perspective of real options,the perspective of financing constraints,and the perspective of the competitive environment,which further enriches the relationship between macro monetary policy uncertainty and micro enterprise behavior of technological innovation.