Influence Study Of Technological Uncertainty On Technological Innovation Investment Strategy

Technical uncertainty is the most important factor which influences the technical innovation investment strategy. In the real economic movement, there are many different kinds of technical uncertainty. So when analyzing the influence of the technical uncertainty on the technical innovation investment strategy, we must distinguish the different influence of different technical uncertainty on the technical innovation investment strategy. The paper classifies the technical uncertainty into two kinds, the inside and the outside. And basing on the former research harvest, we use the real option method to discuss the influence of the two technology uncertainty to the technological innovation investment.The results show that: (1) with the market uncertainty, the inside technological uncertainty delays the time-to-invest of both the leader and the follower; (2) Contrary to the relation with the follower's invest time, the technology correlation of the two companies is independent of the leader's invest time; (3) Only with the revenue-related uncertainty, the outside technology uncertainty can affect the optimal time-to-invest. It makes the optimal time-to-invest more late.The paper consists of 5 chapters. The first chapter is introduction, referring the concept of technology innovation, and summing up its study. The second chapter talks about the main research tool in this paper-----the Real Option Theory, and introducing what problems it mostly used in. The third and forth chapters are the most important content in this paper. In these two parts, we research the influence of the inside and outside technological uncertainty on technological innovation investment strategy. The last chapter is the general summing-up.