The Empirical Analysis Of Intertemporal Influence Of Enterprise Deviation Sustainable Growth On Financial Performance

For a long time,China's economy has maintained a high-speed growth,especially in the real estate industry and the information technology industry.In recent years,in order to promote sustainable economic development,Chinese government has gradually implemented economic restructuring and upgrading,guided the transformation of the economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development.As a result,more and more scholars have begun to pay attention to the sustainable growth of enterprises and re-examine the growth rate of Chinese enterprises.Sustainable growth rate is an effective tool to measure the the appropriate growth rate of enterprises,so it has received more and more attention.The existing literature focuses on the design of sustainable growth model,whether companies achieve sustainable growth and influencing factors of sustainable growth rate.However there is few literature about the deviation between real growth rate and sustainable growth rates,as well as their economic consequences.This thesis studies the impact of deviation sustainable growth on financial performance,and based on the long-term span of strategy,taking the possibility of hysteresis effect into account,this thesis studies the intertemporal relationship between these two indexes.Firstly,this thesis systematically reviews the literature at home and abroad,defines the deviation of sustainable growth,makes a comparative analysis of four classical models for calculating sustainable growth rate,and puts forward research hypotheses based on relevant theories.After establishing a dynamic model of the intertemporal impact of deviation sustainable growth on financial performance,considering the endogenous problem involved in the model,this thesis compares several estimation methods and chooses system GMM method to estimate the model.Then,in the empirical part,this thesis select China's A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2017 as a full sample,and select the listed companies in the real estate and information technology industry from 2008 to 2017 as two sub-samples.The empirical results show that: The whole China's listed companies and listed companies in real estate and information technology industries show positive deviation sustainable growth;For all sample enterprises,current deviation sustainable growth has a significant negative impact on later period financial performance;For real estate enterprises,current deviation sustainable growth has a significant positive influence on current financial performance,but the impact is very weak.And current deviation sustainable growth has a significant negative impact on later period financial performance;For information technology enterprises,The deviation sustainable growth in the current period and the the period before last have little negative impact on the current financial performance,while the deviation sustainable growth in the previous period has a significant positive influence on current financial performance.Current performance is positively affected by previous performance.Finally,based on the results of literature research and empirical research,this thesis puts forward suggestion about sustainable growth to Listed Companies in China: enterprises should focus on long-term interests,consider the relationship between deviation sustainable growth and financial performance with a developmental perspective.When enterprises show deviation sustainable growth,enterprise should adjust the business strategy and financial policy to reduce the degree of deviationThis thesis explores the intertemporal impact of deviation sustainable growth on financial performance and enriches the research results of sustainable growth.And also this thesis is of great practical significance to help managers rationally think about actual growth rate and formulate effective development strategies.