The Impact Of Trade Conflicts On Currency Internationalization

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States,Sino-US trade frictions have always existed,meanwhile,the trade conflicts have always followed the development of China's economy.After Trump took office,trade frictions rose into a Sino-US trade war.At a time when the renminbi is going international,frequent,complicated,and long-term Sino-US trade wars will worsen China's foreign trade environment and inhibit the renminbi internationalization process.Judging from the existing international experience,Japan 's official promotion of the yen 's internationalization is also a period of intense trade conflict with the United States,which is very similar to the current situation in China.This article focuses on the analysis of the impact of trade conflicts on currency internationalization,sorting out the impact channels,action mechanisms,and related theories of trade conflicts on currency internationalization.At the same time,considering the external economic environment,geographical similarity,and similarities in historical development processes,the yen is selected for analysis in the current diversified international reserve currency system dominated by the US dollar.By analyzing how Japan responded to trade conflicts with the United States during the internationalization of the yen in the 20 th century,it will learn from Japan 's countermeasures and domestic reform measures.In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of trade conflicts on currency internationalization,this paper selects the internationalization of the yen,Japan-US trade conflicts,and the construction of interest rates to establish a structural vector autoregressive model,analyzing the mutual dynamic dependence between the three,and then deriving currency Internationalization in response to trade war factors.Finally,it puts forward specific policy suggestions on how to continue to deepen the process of RMB internationalization in the context of the Sino-US trade war.