Study On The Spillover Effect Of Commodity Housing Price Fluctuation In Taiyuan Metropolitan

Since the reform and opening up,the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta metropolitan areas have promoted the development of neighboring cities by the interconnection of inter-city,these two areas have become China's economically developed and strong industrial base,Practice has proved that the development of the metropolitan area can promote the overall improvement of the level of regional economic development,As one of the key development areas in the Central Region,Taiyuan Metropolitan Area has correspondingly improved its economic development level,However,compared with the remaining major metropolitan areas in the Central Region,the overall economic growth and economic growth rate of the region is lagging behind,and its development is still immature,The real estate industry is a important industry for regional economic development,During the development of the Taiyuan metropolitan area,the commercial housing market has developed to a certain extent,but the prices of commercial housing have shown some differences between regions,Fluctuations in the price of commodity housing in Taiyuan City have caused a certain spillover to the surrounding areas,In order to guide the rational development of the commercial housing market in the Taiyuan metropolitan area,it is necessary to analyze the current situation and influencing factors of the spillover effects of commercial housing prices during the development of the metropolitan area,and provide targeted suggestions for the benign development of the commercial housing market and the coordinated development of the regional economy,This paper selects five prefecture-level cities in the Taiyuan metropolitan area and the remaining 9 county-level cities(districts)except Taiyuan City as the research scope,Taking the commodity housing prices in different areas of the Taiyuan metropolitan area as the study object,this paper used Moran index test to find that there is a spatial autocorrelation in the prices of commodity housing in the Taiyuan metropolitan area,Based on the housing stock-flow model,this paper introduces the price expectation function and uses the spatial dynamic panel model to analyze whether there is aspillover effect on the price of the commodity housing market in the Taiyuan metropolitan area,The Granger causality test and impulse response function are used to analyze the direction and extent of spillover of commodity housing prices under the aspect of the city and county-level cities(districts),and analyze the influencing factors that cause fluctuations in commodity housing prices across above mentioned regions,The results indicated that: at the prefecture-level city level,Taiyuan City had spillover effects on Jinzhong City and Xinzhou City,but it did not have spillover effects on other prefecture-level cities;Yangquan City and Lvliang City had unidirectional spillover effects due to the same industrial structure;At the county-level city(district)level,Taiyuan City has a significant spillover effect on Yuci District,and there is no spillover effect on other county-level cities(districts);Xinfu District has a negative impact on the price of commercial housing in Taiyuan;Jiexiu City had a spillover effect on the prices of commercial houses in Taigu District;there is a two-way spillover effect in Xiaoyi City and Lishi District,This paper believes that there is a volatile spillover effect of commodity housing prices in the Taiyuan metropolitan area,but the spillover effect is not significant,because the economic development level of Taiyuan City is low and the role of the central city is not strong;There are certain volatility spillover effects,Similar industrial structures and strong industrial correlation are the main factors that cause commodity housing price volatility spillovers,Therefore,in considering the price volatility spillovers of commercial housing in Taiyuan city and other cities,this article also adds study on the level of Taiyuan city and county-level cities(districts),in order to throughly reflect the current situation of price volatility spillovers of commercial housing in Taiyuan metropolitan area,...