Research On Spatial Spillover Effect Of Commodity Housing Price Under Short Cyclical Fluctuation

In recent years,the characteristics of commodity housing price fluctuation in China are obvious,and the phenomenon of house price spillover is obvious in major urban agglomerations.The price of commodity housing has cyclical fluctuations under the dual role of the real estate market mechanism and the government macro regulation and control.The price of commodity housing in large scale cities in the country has experienced a continuous rise in 2003,2004-2007,2012,2013 and 2015 to 2017,and the fluctuation of commodity housing price always takes the lead in economic development.Cities with higher levels of development spread to most cities in the country.With the growing maturity of regionalized urban clusters,the spillover effect of housing prices continues to increase.The core issue of this paper is the spatial spillover effect of commodity housing prices in urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.By combing and summarizing the research theories and achievements of relevant scholars at home and abroad,based on the monthly data of 25 cities in January 2011-2016 December,the spillover effects of the three regions and three regions of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are explored through the Granger causality test and the VAR model based methods.Conclusion:(1)through combing the research results of the formation mechanism of the domestic and foreign commodity housing price spillover effects and the analysis of the real foundation of the spillover of commodity housing price,it is believed that thespillover causes of the commodity housing price are mainly the following five aspects:population migration,wealth transfer,investment nature,heart expectation,and the spillover effect of the factors of house prices.(2)The average price of commodity housing in 25 cities of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is analyzed by HP filtering method.It is found that there is a obvious small cycle fluctuation in the commodity housing price,and its fluctuation cycle is 2-3 years,and the cycle is asymmetrical.(3)The VAR model of commodity housing price is set up to reveal the spillover path and spillover degree of commodity housing price.The results show that the interactions among cities are complex and the degree of influence is heterogeneous.The price fluctuations in Wuhan,Xiangyang,Yichang,Huanggang,Changsha,Yiyang,Zhuzhou,Nanchang and Jiujiang can affect several cities in the region respectively.The price spillover of the urban agglomeration and the surrounding commodity housing is small.Wuhan,Changsha and Nanchang are the core cities of three regional fluctuation of housing prices,respectively.Changsha and Changsha have a leading role in Nanchang.