| Under the background of increasing downward pressure and systemic risk of the world economy,the financial risk caused by high leverage has become a stumbling block to the upgrading of industrial structure.On the one hand,the growth of the world economy is weak and the signs of recovery are not obvious;on the other hand,the leverage ratio of the world is rising,the risk of economic operation is increasing,and the resistance to the high-quality development of the real economy is increasing.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the upgrading of industrial structure under the background of weak economic growth and rising financial leverage.By studying the relationship between the fluctuation of financial leverage and the adjustment of industrial structure,this paper empirically analyzes the influence of financial leverage and fluctuation of financial leverage on the upgrading of industrial structure,and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for preventing financial risks and promoting the upgrading of industrial structure.It is divided into five chapters: the first chapter is the introduction;the second chapter is the theoretical basis,which defines the basic concepts and combs the evolution of financial development theory and industrial structure theory.The third chapter is the trend analysis of the fluctuation of financial leverage and the change of industrial structure,which makes an in-depth analysis of the fluctuation of global and Chinese macro-financial leverage and the change of industrial structure,and analyzes the situation of global and Chinese macro-financial leverage fluctuation and industrial structure change from the point of view of supply and demand.From the angle of view,this paper discusses the four effects of financial leverage fluctuation on the upgrading of industrial structure,such as capital allocation,credit creation,information transmission and risk management.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis of the impact of financial leverage and financial leverage volatility on the upgrading of industrial structure.51 countries in the world from 2001 to 2017 are selected as samples.The empirical analysis shows the impact of macro-financial leverage and financial leverage volatility on the upgrading of industrial structure.The fifth chapter is the conclusion andsuggestion,which puts forward the relevant policy suggestions from the government level and the enterprise level respectively.Through the analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions: firstly,from the analysis of the present situation,we can find that the fluctuation of financial leverage and the upgrading of industrial structure exist.Significant correlation;Secondly,it is found that there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between financial leverage and the output value / GDP of the first and second industries,a significant U-shaped relationship with the output value / GDP of the tertiary industry,and the fluctuation of financial leverage and the first.There is a significant negative correlation between the output value / GDP of the secondary industry,and a significant positive correlation between the fluctuation of financial leverage and the added value / GDP of the tertiary industry.From this,it can be concluded that there is a significant positive correlation between financial leverage and its fluctuation on the upgrading of industrial structure.The contributions of this paper are as follows: on the one hand,by analyzing the upgrading of industrial structure under the background of high leverage,the theory of modern industrial structure has been enriched and developed;On the other hand,by analyzing the level of financial leverage in various countries,the fluctuation degree of financial leverage has different effects on the change of industrial structure,which also has important guiding significance for China's economy to prevent systemic risks and upgrade the industrial structure. |
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