The Spatial Effects Of China's Direct Investment In The "Belt And Road" Countries On Exports

Since the implementation of the “Belt and Road” initiative in 2013,remarkable achievements have been made,which has created convenient conditions and a favorable environment for Chinese companies to “go global”.The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has established,the scale of OFDI in the countries along the route will rapidly expand,and the investment structure is gradually optimized,which will affect China's export scale and export product structure.At the same time,as the “Belt and Road” economic belt spans the three continents of Asia,Africa and Europe,there are obvious cultural differences between countries.The study of OFDI and trade for countries with different cultural backgrounds will play an important role in promoting and realizing the “Belt and Road” initiative.Since the 1990 s,with the continuous development of the "new economic geography" theory of Krugman(1998),trade and investment activities between the two countries are not only affected by bilateral influences,but also by trade and investment activities between neighboring countries.Has a certain spatial effect,China's export to a country is not only affected by China's OFDI to that country,but also by China's OFDI to its neighboring countries,that is,OFDI has a space spillover effect on exports.Therefore,we need to re-examine the impact of OFDI on export scale and export product structure from a spatial perspective,and use spatial econometric methods to identify and test China 's OFDI export scale and export product structure along the “Belt and Road” It has spatial effects,as well as the direction and extent of the effects.In the first chapter,this paper sorts out and summarizes the domestic and foreign literature on the impact of OFDI on trade,the spatial effect of OFDI and exports,and the setting of the spatial weight matrix.In the second chapter,after summarizing the theoretical impact mechanism of OFDI on export scale and export product structure,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of OFDI on export commodity structure in China.In the third,fourth,and fifth chapters,this article takes the panel data of 95 countries along the “Belt and Road” in 2004—2017 as a sample to construct an empirical analysis of the spatial weight matrix of geographic distance,geographic proximity,and cultural distance.The results show that when considering geographical factors and using the geographic distance matrix W1 as the weight matrix,China 's OFDI for the countries along the “Belt and Road” has a negative spatial effect on the scale of exports.In terms of product mix,China 's OFDI on the “Belt and Road” countries has a weak positive spatial effect on the proportion of exports of intermediate goods,a weak negative spatial effect on the proportion of exports of capital goods,and a proportion of exports of consumer goods.There is no spatial effect.The test results using geographic proximity matrix W2 and OFDI stock show that the above conclusions are robust.When considering cultural factors and using the cultural distance matrix W3 as the weight matrix,China's OFDI for countries along the “Belt and Road” will have a negative spatial effect on the scale of exports.In terms of product structure,China 's OFDI to the countries along the “Belt and Road” has no spatial effect on the proportion of exports of intermediate goods,the proportion of exports of capital goods,and the proportion of exports of consumer goods.The test results using OFDI stocks show that the above conclusions are robust.In Chapter 6,this article puts forward relevant policy recommendations to the government and enterprises based on the above empirical results.