Study On The Spatial Spillover Effects Of Bidirectional Influence Of China's Outward Direct Investment And Export Trade

Under the background of economic globalization,China's export trade and foreign direct investment have been developing rapidly.At present,China has become the world's largest exporter of trade and a well-deserved international investment country.With the continuous deepening of China's reform and opening-up process,the two-way influence between its export trade and foreign direct investment has deepened day by day,and their integration has been gradually increasing.Since the1990 s,with the continuous development of the theory of "New Economic Geography",geography,location and other factors have begun to be formally incorporated into the analysis of the trade and economic influence factors,and there will be a relatively close economic interaction among countries Relations and trade between any two economies.Investment activities are not only affected by bilateral trade and investment activities,but also affected by the trade and investment activities among other countries.Such effects are spatially related.The economic and trade relations between China and its export trading partner countries and direct investment host countries are no exception.China's export trade and direct investment in a certain country are affected not only by China's direct investment in the country and its export trade,but also by the investment and trade activities between China and other countries,namely,the spillover effect of trade and investment activities.Based on this,this paper uses the econometric method to identify,test and analyze the existence and impact of the spillover effect between China's export trade and OFDI.This paper first sorts out and summarizes the theoretical literature on the two-way impact of China's export trade and foreign direct investment,and the representative literature on the spatial correlation between the two factors.Secondly,on the basis ofthe existing theoretical research,this paper elaborates the mechanism and spillover mechanism of the two-way impact of OFDI and export trade from two aspects of trade scale and trade product structure.Thirdly,taking the panel data of 110 countries(regions)in China from 2003 to 2016 as samples,under the geographical distance matrix,this paper chooses the FDI flows from China,the total export volume of Chinese customs to other countries,the export of consumer goods to China,capital goods and the share of high-tech products in the total amount of China's exports of customs goods as an indicator of China's OFDI,the scale of export trade and the structure of export products,an empirical analysis of the Spatial Dubin Model is made.The SDM estimation results and the decomposition results show that as for the scale of China's export trade,there is no spillover effect on its outward FDI flows.In the structure of export trade products,the proportion of export consumer goods has significant negative spatial spillover effect on its outward FDI flows;the proportion of export capital goods has a significant positive spillover effect on its investment,and the former has more spillover effects.Obviously,there is no spillover effect on the investment of high-tech exports.This conclusion has strong robustness.The above conclusion still holds when the geographical distance matrix are replaced by the economic distance matrix and the weighted distance matrix,the FDI flows are replaced by the direct investment stocks.On the other hand,China's outward FDI flows have a positive spillover effect on the scale of its exports.For the structure of export trade products,there is a slight positive spillover effect of China's direct investment on its share of export capital goods;there is no spillover effect on the proportion of its export-oriented consumer goods and the share of high-tech goods.The result is robust under the economic distance matrix and the weighted distance matrix.However,when the FDI flows are replaced by the direct investment stocks,the above conclusion still holds for the export scale.For the proportion of export capital goods said that there was no spillover effect on the stock of OFDI.Finally,based on the findings of the study,this paper proposes policy recommendations in a targeted manner.