Research On The Dynamic Correlation Between Stock Prices And Real Estate Prices In My Country

In 2020,the goal of doubling the GDP and per capita income of urban and rural residents will be achieved.In order to maintain and appreciate wealth,people pay more and more attention to the investment in the capital market.Stock and real estate are very important investment tools in the capital market of our country,which attract people’s attention.Although there are many researches on the stock market and the housing market in the current academic circles,there are few researches on the price correlation between the two markets from the dynamic point of view.This paper will study the dynamic changes of the price correlation coefficient of the two markets from the dynamic point of view and further explore the influencing factors of the price correlation coefficient of the two markets.After summarizing the theoretical basis and market environment of the correlation between China’s stock price and real estate price,this paper selects the monthly data of Shanghai stock index,Shenzhen stock index and China’s housing boom index from January 2005 to January 2020,and uses stata15.1 measurement software to carry out descriptive statistics,stationarity test,heteroscedasticity test and Granger causality test on the data,and constructs dcc-garch The dynamic model fits the dynamic correlation coefficient of the stock market price and the real estate market price in China.At the same time,regression analysis is made on seven factors that affect the dynamic correlation between the two markets.Through empirical analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions: first of all,from January 2005 to January 2020,China’s stock price change is the Granger cause of house price change,while house price change is not the Granger cause of stock price change.Secondly,in 2005-2014,the dynamic correlation between the prices of the two cities is mainly positive.In 2014-2017,the dynamic correlation between the prices of the two cities is mainly negative.In 2018-2020,the dynamic correlation coefficient between the prices of the two cities rises and increases continuously.Finally,among the seven factors that affect the dynamic correlation coefficient of stock price and real estate price in China,interest rate and exchange rate have the greatest and positive influence,and the increase of GDP,money supply andreal estate favorable policies can also have a positive effect on the correlation coefficient of the two cities;the new normal variables of economy and the impact variables of financial crisis have a positive effect on the correlation coefficient of the two cities Reverse action.Therefore,this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions:first of all,strengthen the system construction of the stock market,improve the laws and regulations,pay close attention to the development trend of the real estate market,suppress speculation,develop the housing rental market and pay attention to regional equilibrium.Secondly,we should develop REITs and broaden the channels of information exchange.Thirdly,in the process of interest rate marketization,the dual track should be carried out safely to take care of the changes in the relationship between the stock market and the housing market,and pay attention to stabilizing the RMB exchange rate in the current Sino-US trade friction.Finally,for the investors in the market,this paper suggests that we should learn from the causes and trends of each capital market shock to remind ourselves to keep rational and pay attention to the changes of the dynamic correlation coefficient of the two markets,and adjust their asset portfolio in time.