Evaluation Of Economic Effect Of Guangdong Pilot Free Trade Zone

China’s first Free Trade Zone(FTZ),the Shanghai Free Trade Zone,was established in September 2013,after that,another 17 Free Trade Zones have been approved.In theory,the establishment of FTZ will promote the development of local finance,trade and investment by transforming government functions,deepening financial system innovation,and improving trade and investment facilitation,thereby promoting regional economic growth.Has the establishment of FTZ in China promoted economic growth as expected by the theory and achieved the positioning goal when it was established? Based on the scarcity of empirical evaluation on this issue,this paper takes Guangdong Free Trade Zone as the research object to empirically evaluate the economic effect of the establishment of Guangdong Free Trade Zone.In this paper,the synthetic control method,an emerging policy evaluation method,is adopted to evaluate the economic effect of the establishment of Guangdong Free Trade Zone from the provincial and prefectural levels.By constructing a synthetic control group,and calculate the difference between the actual value of economic variables in the post-establishment treatment group of Guangdong Free Trade Zone and the "counterfactual" estimated value of economic variables in the synthetic control group to evaluate the effect of the establishment of Guangdong Free Trade Zone on economic growth,import and export trade,fixed asset investment,financial openness and so on.The empirical results show that the promotion effect of the establishment of Free Trade Zones on economy is dynamic: the promotion effect on economic growth and export is significant in the short term,and the promotion effect on investment and financial opening is significant in the long term.Provincial level assessment results show that the promotion effect of the establishment of Guangdong Free Trade Zone on Guangdong’s economy(industrial added value)lasted for about 20 months,during which the growth rate increased by about 3.14%.The stimulative effect on investment(the amount of fixed asset investment completed)has continued to today,with the growth rate increasing by about 3.24%.The stimulative effect on financial liberalization(the balance of local and foreign currency loans of financial institutions)has continued to today,with the growth rate increasing by about 4.1%.The stimulative effect on trade cannot be evaluated by the synthetic control method.The evaluation results at the prefecture-level show that Qianhai Free Trade Zone has the most significant positive effect on Shenzhen’s economic growth,investment,financial opening and export.Nansha Free Trade Zone has the second positive effect on Guangzhou’s the economic growth,investment and export,but has no significant effect on the financial opening.The positive effect of Hengqin Free Trade Zone on Zhuhai’s the economic growth,investment,financial opening and export has a time lag.Further combining the functional positioning of the three zones,the effect of the establishment of each trade zone on the specific economic function of the local city was evaluated.Guangzhou Nansha Free Trade Zone focuses on the development of shipping logistics.The establishment of Nansha zone has promoted the shipping logistics(waterway freight turnover)in Guangzhou for 31 months,during which the growth rate increased by 52%.The establishment of Qianhai Shekou Free Trade Zone has continued to promote the financial opening of Shenzhen(the balance of local and foreign currency loans of financial institutions),and the growth rate has increased by about 10%.Zhuhai Hengqin Free Trade Zone focuses on tourism and education,but due to insufficient data,this paper fails to make corresponding assessment.In general,the evaluation results show that the establishment of Guangdong Free Trade Zone has a significant positive impact on regional economic operation to different degrees,but the economic impact of different zones is obviously differentiated.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward some Suggestions based on the actual economic development of each region.