Study On The Impact Of China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement On China Foreign Trade

The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area was officially launched on January 1,2010.Since the establishment of the free trade area,the trade between China and ASEAN countries has reached 13%of the world’s total trade.The free trade area contains 11 countries with a population of 1.9 billion and a GDP of 6 trillion us dollars.China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement is an earlier free trade agreement signed by China.This paper combed the relevant theory,on the basis of the research and literature analysis,using gravity model,selected the 2005-2018,14 years in ten members of ASEAN Trade Agreement and China,including the European Union,the United States and Japan,etc,36 agreement with reference to the national import and export trade data,study of Chinese and trade partners of gross domestic product(GDP),China and trade cooperation partners,trade of the absolute value of the real per capita GDP gap between national capital distance,whether or not to use the same language,and whether signed ASEAN Free Trade Agreement on the impact of China’s foreign trade.The regression analysis of China’s foreign trade activities as a whole and in three stages is carried out.Finally,it puts forward some Suggestions on the development of China’s regional trade.Through analysis,this paper draws a conclusion:(1)The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will produce trade creation effect and trade diversion effect.Over time,the effects of creation and transfer on trade have become more pronounced.The overall trade creation effect is greater between 2005 and 2018.In the long run,the establishment of the free trade zone is beneficial to China foreign trade.(2)The volume of trade is positively correlated with the economic scale and common language of both sides.The higher the GDP of China and its partner countries is,the higher the bilateral import and export trade will be.Having similar language,culture and background will weaken some frictions in trade exchanges and promote the long-term development of trade cooperation.(3)The absolute value of real per capita GDP difference between China and trading partner countries will also have a positive impact on bilateral trade.Different countries have different technological advantages and resource endowments in the types of traded products,so the division of labor of each country is different,which leads to differences in actual demand and consumption capacity.Different cultural backgrounds also lead to differences in consumption preferences.Therefore,the difference in per capita GDP within a certain range will stimulate trade cooperation.(4)The greater the trade distance between the two countries,the smaller the trade volume between the two sides,but this influence is gradually diminishing.The increase of trade distance means the trade resistance and potential risks of both sides are increasing.The length of transportation distance will have an important impact on the scale and variety of commodity trade.However,the stepwise regression analysis shows that with the deepening of bilateral trade cooperation,the influence of distance factor on trade is gradually overcome.