Assessment Of Revenue-Risk Of PPP-REITs And Design Of Their Operation Mode

With PPP(Public-Private Partnership)widely applied to infrastructure sector in China,diversifying sources of financing and tranction mode will contribute to the sustainable development of PPP.And REITs(Real Estate Investment Trusts)can help social capital to transaction smoothly and revitalize stock PPP assets.However,current PPP asset securitization market in China is still not mature;thus the implementation of REITs is subject to many restrictions.It is necessary to design an appropriate operation mode of PPP-REITs considering the conflict in China's development of PPP-REITs.Firstly,the thesis reviews the experience in overseas REITs and infrastructure REITs by literature review and case study.Also,it summarizes the problems and risks of the legal system,market environment and operational process of domestic REITs and PPP asset securitization markets,which demonstrates the significance of designing an operation mode of China's PPP-REITs by drawing on foreign experience.Then,an empirical study on determinants of REIT's performance was conducted by analyzing a sample of US infrastructure REITs under VAR model.The results show that the return of infrastructure REITs are determined by industrial production index,inflation rate,interest rate,S&P500 Utilities index and housing price index.These key factors provide a reference for designing a dynamic pricing adjustment mechanism for PPP-REITs.Furthermore,the risk of infrastructure REITs is simulated under GARCH model,and the risk value of REITs is measured by Va R method.The result shows that GARCH model can effectively assess the risk level of infrastructure REITs,which could be developed as a unified risk measurement tool of PPP-REITs.Finally,based on the experience of overseas REITs and the above empirical research results,taking into account the situation of China's PPP asset securitization market,the thesis designs the operation mode of PPP-REITs,clarifying the practical attention points in asset selection,transaction structure and trasaction mechanism.Regarding present difficulties and critical issues for promoting PPP-REITs,combined with expert opinions,the thesis proposes some policy suggestions such as clarifying the company's rights transfer policy and determining a reasonable valuation pricing system,which have certain reference value for further improving the PPP project financing market,increasing the liquidity and financing of PPP projects,and revitalizing stock PPP assets.