Economic Growth And Changes Of Manufacturing Structure Under The Perspective Of Product Space

The study of economic growth and structural change has always been an area of concern in industrial economics,with the deepening of the global industrial division of labor and the widening of differences between different industries in manufacturing,the traditional theory is no longer suitable for analyzing new trends because it is difficult to incorporate specific technological differences into the analytical framework.The product space theory put forward by Hausmann et al.provides a new way to measure the economic and technological complexity from micro-product to macro-economic body from a new perspective,and studies economic growth and structural change from the perspective of product space,which can incorporate technical factors into the analytical framework.The factor that plays an important role in economic growth is total factor productivity,so this paper wants to examine the relationship between economic complexity index and total factor productivity in product space theory,in addition,product space theory is based on the theory of tradable products,the vast majority of tradeable products are manufactured products.Therefore,we can exclude non-manufactured products such as agricultural products,works of art and so on,obtain data containing only manufactured products,and use the concept of product complexity to incorporate technical factors into the analysis of changes in manufacturing structure.Combined with the above considerations,after combing through the literature on economic growth and structural changes and product space theory,this paper mainly carries out two empirical studies: first,the relationship between economic complexity and total factor productivity,and secondly,the elimination of non-manufacturing products,and the structural changes of manufacturing industry from the perspective of technological complexity changes.Therefore,this paper first measures the economic complexity and total factor productivity of 36 countries from 1997 to 2016,and makes an empirical study of the relationship between economic complexity and total factor productivity,and then constructs the MCI of the manufacturing technology complexity index by means of the structural concept of export complexity EXPY.Classifying 4511 HS92 coding products under the ISIC Rev3 standard under the manufacturing subsector,and calculating the global manufacturing technology complexity in 1995 and 2016,and selecting 12 sample countries,divided into four categories according to whether they belong to developed or developing countries,large or small countries.Each category selected three countries to calculate their manufacturing technology complexity from 1995 to 2016 and to break down complexity changes using the offshare method.After empirical research,This paper finds that: 1.Economic complexity has a significant positive impact on total factor productivity,2.From 1995 to 2016,there was little significant change in the overall complexity of global manufacturing industry,3.Manufacturing technology complexity in large developed countries is higher than the global mean and is expanding the leading edge,and the technical complexity is higher in most manufacturing segments than the global The main factors that promote the change of its technological complexity are the internal structural effects of the manufacturing sub-sectors,and the external structural effects between manufacturing industries contribute little 4.Manufacturing technology complexity in small developed countries is higher than the global mean but the leading edge is shrinking,and in 1 or 2 manufacturing segments there are much higher technical complexity than the global mean,the internal structural effect of manufacturing segments has a negative impact on the overall technical complexity of manufacturing industry,while the external structural effects of the industry have a negative impact on the overall technical complexity of manufacturing industry 5.The six developing countries selected in this paper have increased in manufacturing technology complexity,while the growth of manufacturing technology is often contributed by the internal structural effects of manufacturing subsectors,and their economic development is better than those that depend on the external structural effects between manufacturing industries.According to the conclusion of this paper,some suggestions are put forward for China's economic growth and manufacturing development,including improving the quality and structure of export products,enhancing their own economic complexity,and paying more attention to the upgrading of intra-industry products within the manufacturing industry,compared with the structural transfer between manufacturing industries.Optimizing the internal production structure of the manufacturing sub-sector spree will promote China's economic growth more obviously.