Study On Capacity Expansion Plan For Third-party Logistics Company Under Demand Uncertainty

Third-party logistics enterprise(3PL)is one of the main components of today's supply chain,which can significantly improve the efficiency of logistics operations and reduce the overall transportation cost of the enterprise.Therefore,it plays an increasingly important role in the production and operation of enterprises and resource distribution.For the 3PLs,their disposable capital and transportation capacity resources are limited,so it is necessary to consider how to make a proper decision on constructing transportation capacities under uncertain transportation demand so as to reduce the total costs of constructing and allocating capacities under the premise of the demand fulfilling rate.In addition,it is also considered that the shippers' requirements for transportation services are differentiated,and 3PLs also treat different quality requirements in a differentiated manner to achieve sustained high efficiency and high profits.This research will have an important theoretical and practical guiding significance for 3PLs.Therefore,on the basis of comprehensively identifying the demand uncertainty and demand differentiation in the capacity expansion problem,this research mainly constructs(1)a two-stage stochastic programming model with resource to force the demand to be satisfied;(2)a chance-constrained model considering demand fulfillment rates so as to provide managers with capacity expansion plans under different service levels,and the deterministic equivalent method is applied to convert the chance-constrained model into a linear programming one;(3)a CVaR-based two-stage stochastic program that considers decision makers' risk preferences to reflect the trade-off between system cost and system risk in capacity expansion problems,which can provide capacity expansion solutions under different risk preferences;(4)a two-stage stochastic program that takes into account capacity priority allocation constraints and joint demand satisfaction rate constraints,and the sample average approximation algorithm is applied so that any form of demand distribution can be solved,and a more accurate approximate solution is obtained,the results can guide the managers to expand capacity and allocate resources properly.Finally,this research conducts sensitivity analysis and feasibility verification for each model to analyze the impact of each parameter on the objective function and decision solution.This research provides different capacity expansion plans under different situations through various capacity expansion models.It has some innovations in the system uncertainty quantitative characterization,differentiated services,service level restrictions and system risk control in the 3PLs capacity research.The capacity expansion model comprehensively considers demand uncertainty,demand differentiation,company service differentiation and service level requirements,which enriches the 3PLs capacity optimization theory under uncertain factors,and provide theoretical supports for companies to reduce costs,maintain good customer relationships,and achieve sustainable development.