A Study On The Two-way Impact Of The Structure Of International Payments And The Internationalization Of The Renminbi

The gradual development of the internationalization of the RMB from primary to advanced,the impact of various factors on internationalization in different periods is not the same.This artical explored the two-way interaction between the balance of payments and the internationalization of the RMB from the mechanism: in recent years,China's “double surplus” and “one surplus and one deficit” balance of payments had a corresponding impact on the degree of internationalization of the RMB;in the future the internationalization of the RMB will bring changes in the balance of payment.Since the year of 2016,trade frictions and trade wars between China and America had brought new variables to the changes in the balance of payments,which had also affected the steady advancement of the internationalization of the RMB.Therefore,studying the two-way influence relationship between China's balance of payments structure and RMB internationalization has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting the internationalization of the RMB,the stability of the RMB currency,the stability of the domestic price level,and the adjustment of the international balance of payments.Firstly,this paper elaborates the research background and significance of the thesis,analyzes the progress of the policy of the internationalization of RMB,and then illustrates the changes in China's balance of payments by charts and graphs.It is summarized from the currency internationalization,the internationalization of RMB,the balance of payments and the relationsship between them,explaining the necessity of studying China's balance of payments and the development of the internationalization of RMB.The second part of the paper analyzes some theories such as the optimal currency area theory and Samuelson's balance of payments theory in order to provide a theoretical basis for studying the relationship between the two aspects,and then analyzes the mutual relationship between China's balance of payments and the advancement of the internationalization of RMB.The third part of the paper introduces the VAR and TVP-SV-VAR empirical models to study the dynamic interaction between the indicators,by using the quarterly data from Q1 2004 to Q4 2018.The VAR model is used for Granger causality test and impulse response analysis,while the TVP-SV-VAR model analyzes the time-varying characteristics of random volatility of the main variables of the model and the time-varying characteristics of impulse response at different lead times and at different time points.Finally,the author sumed up the the main conclusions of this paper,and gave the relevant policy suggestions.Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,this paper explores the dynamic interaction between China's balance of payments and the internationalization of RMB,and these will have different impacts at different times and in different policy backgrounds.In the end,this paper proposes to improve the competitiveness of export products,open the capital,maintain the stability of the internal price level,and strengthen the policy construction of the RMB infrastructure in recent stage,to promote the internationalization of the RMB to a higher stage and the balance of payments structure.