Research On The Influencing Factors Of The Default Risk Of Unsecured Credit Loans For Small, Medium And Micro Enterprises

With the establishment and development of the socialist market economic system,China's micro small and medium-sized enterprises have gradually become an important part of promoting national economic development and maintaining social stability.At the same time,the increase of employment,innovation of science and technology,development of international trade,and promotion of economic growth are inseparable from micro small and medium-sized enterprises,It seems that micro small and medium-sized enterprises have become an important economic pillar in China.Micro small and medium-sized enterprises want to have sustainable and stable development without strong financial support.At the fifth national financial work conference recently held,it was emphasized that finance is an important core competitiveness of the country,and the safety of the finance is the most important.In the future,the direction of financial work is to build inclusive financial system,strengthen financial services for small and micro enterprises,and encourage the development of green finance.Financial security is also the top priority.We should strive to improve the financial security defense line and risk emergency response mechanism.At present,the main financing channel of most micro small and medium-sized enterprises in China is through commercial banks.But our enterprise life always short,one of the top reasons is that the huge financial risk leads to financing difficulties.Therefore,the analysis and prevention of financing risk of micro small and medium-sized enterprises should be focus concerned.According to the data provided by the CBRC,the loan support rate to large enterprises is 100%,to medium-sized enterprises is about 90%,and to small and micro enterprises is only about 20%.the high default rate of credit loans of micro small and medium-sized enterprises in China leads to this phenomenon.Therefore,we should not only support the development of the real economy of micro small and medium-sized enterprises,but also fight against the financial risks.To balance the financing difficulties of micro small and medium-sized enterprises and the high cost of credit risk of commercial banks,One of the ways is to identify the risk factors quickly and effectively,and actively resolve the violation risks,so as to carry out credit extension based on the accurate measurement of the credit risk of micro small and medium-sized enterprises work.From the current research and Analysis on the behavior and impact of micro small and medium-sized enterprises credit default in China,most of the research still stays in the theoretical analysis and lacks empirical test.At the same time,most of the samples selected in the existing empirical research come from the public bond analysis data and the data of listed companies.However,micro small and medium-sized enterprises are generally small and difficult to be listed,so the representativeness of both the data samples and the research is slightly insufficient.In view of the above reasons,based on the basic definition of risk,based on the bank risk theory,credit risk and default risk theory,repayment willingness and ability theory,the author uses both qualitative and quantitative analysis method.Under China's economic environment,to identify the main factors that affect the credit default of micro small and medium-sized enterprises in China,And for the enterprises themselves,the commercial banks themselves and the government should take any countermeasures.There are total five chapters in this paper.And the first chapter told the study background and summarizes the research results of domestic and foreign scholars on this subject so as to provide a solid theoretical basis for the empirical analysis.The second chapter is the theoretical overview of related concepts,as well as the current risk management theory and credit default theory of such credit loans.The third chapter introduces the S bank and the product of unsecured loans of S bank.The fourth chapter introduces the source of empirical data and the hypothesis of the research model.And meanwhile uses the logistic regression model statistical method to carry out empirical research on the data samples of enterprises with default in 2017-2019.In the five chapter,according to the conclusion of the summary and analysis,the author puts forward some suggestions and Countermeasures for the micro small and medium-sized enterprises themselves,the commercial banks themselves and the government.In a word,although the research of credit default risk of micro small and medium-sized enterprises is a relatively classic topic,it is far from mature.Based on the rapid development and diversification of micro small and medium-sized enterprises in China,extensive and in-depth research is still needed.I hope that the research conclusions of this paper can provide risk management of China's commercial banks,the implementation of effective regulatory policies by regulatory authorities,and the inclusive financial vision of the government,And to improve the international competitiveness of China's commercial banks.