| The high leverage trap describes a dilemma of policy choices.If laissez-faire leverage continues to rise,it will be a time bomb that will bury the debt crisis in the future,which will adversely affect long-term economic growth.Conversely,if policy intervention is taken on the increase in leverage,it may be because of tighter credit supply or increased financing coats that are not conducive to short-term economic stability.To a certain extent,China seems to be trapped in a high leverage trap(Huang Yipimg,2016).With the global financial crisis in 2008 as a sign.China's non-financial sector has entered the stage of leverage to hedge against the adverse impact of the international financial crisis-Among them,the leverage ratio of the household sector,non-financial corporate sector and government sector has increa sed significantly after the crisis.Atpresent,China's macro leverage ratio has exceeded the average level of developing countries,and is approaching the level of developed countries at a faster rate.At the same time,the existence of a high debt stock has caused all sectors of society and government decision-making departments to focus on the reasons for high leverage and high debt It is an economic growth rate thathas been declining gradually since the new normal of our economy.When the rate of economic growth continues to fall,for non-financial companies with higher leverage,it is difficult for their profits to cover the principal and interest of their debts,so companies may choose to borrow new debt to pay off old debt,which will result in The proportion of Ponzi debtors in the economy continues to increa se,and the risks of macrneconomic operations continue to rise.If it is not handled properly,it may produce a "Great Recession"-type economic recession in the United States from 2007 to 2009,or even a "lost two decades"-like long-term economic growth stagnation in Japan after the 1980s.Starting from actual economic phenomena and economic problems,using a variety of research methods and research tools,a progressive and orderly study of the related issues of China's rising macro leverage and macroeconomic stability.The research questions in this article are mainly three aspects-First,is there a problem of excessive leverage in the non-financial sector in China?S econd,what impact will the high-leverage economic operation mode have on China's macroeconomic stability?Third,can macro-prudential financial supervi sion policies effectively implement the role of structural deleveraging and optinizing resource allocation?Answering the above-mentioned series of questions has important realities for realizing the structural deleveraging,preventing and defusing systemic financial risks,stabilizing China' s current economic development,and basically achieving socialist modernization in 2035,and building a socialist modern powerhouse in 2050.significance.The specific research content and main conclusions of this article are as follows:The second chapter of this article focuses on whether China' s non-financial sector debt leverage is too high.The methods of horizontal and transnational comparisons and vertical historical compari sons are used to analyze the development and status quo and distribution characteristics of Chins's leverage ratio.A preliminary analysis of statistical data shows that the leverage ratio of China's non-financial sector is already higher than the average level of emerging economies and is approaching the average level of developed economies,and the real economy sector,such as households,non-financial enterprises and the government,continues to increase leverage and is shrinking.Then,on the assumption that the long-term equilibrium leverage ratio depends on macroeconomic fundamental information,we also use multinational panel data including developed and emerging market countries to estimate the dynamic panel data model to measure the long-term of each physical sector and the entire non-financial sector in China.Equilibrium leverage.use this long-term equilibrium leverage to det ermine if there is a problem with excessive leverage.The main conclusions are as follows:First,by comparing the long-term equilibrium equation and short-term equilibrium equation of the leverage ratio between the three real economic sectors and the non-financial sector,the income level,government size,and real exchange rate affect the long-term equilibrium and short-term equilibrium leverage of the three real economic sectors.The common factors,demographic factors,real estate prices and loan interest rates are structural factors that only affect the long-term equilibrium and short-term equilibrium leverage of the household sector and the non-financial corporate sector.S econdly,after comparing the long-term equilibrium value of the leverage ratio with the actual leverage rati o of each department,it was found that the leverage ratio of the non-financial corporate sector was significantly higher than the long-term equilibrium value,indicating that the "fund idling" and "de-reli ance" faced by non-financial enterprises "Dummy" and otherissues have accumul ated more debt risks and potential hidden dangers:the actual govemment Leverage ratio is close to the long-term equilibrium value,indicating that the govemment debt risk is generally controllable:the family Leverage ratio continues to converge to the long-term equilibrium level,so the more room for famili es to continue to increase leverage,the more Coming smaller.Regardless of the speed of increasing leverage or debt stock,the main reason for the rapid rise in leverage in the non-Financial sector is the rapid increase in leverage in the non-financial corporate sector.The second chapter through the preliminary analysis of relevant statistical data shows that changes in the leverage of different sectors are closely related to the operation of macroeconomics,and the level of macroeconomic development also deternines the equilibrium leverage of each sector.However,the mechanism and intensity of changes in leverage ratios that affect macroeconomic operations have not yet been explained.Therefore,the third chapter of this article focuses on the mechani sm and intensity of the increase in Leverage of China's no-financial sector and individual sectors on macroeconomic operations,and also hopes to reveal the fluctuations in macroeconomic operations on the Leverage of China's non-financial sectors and various real economy sectors.Impact.In order to analyze this problem,this chapter uses the macro data of China from the first quarter of 1996 to the second quarter of 2018 to construct the TVP-SV-SVAR model to analyze theimpact of changes in the leverage ratio of varions sect ors on the macroeconomic operation,and find the Leverage through empirical analysis in Chapter 3.The exogenous change in the rate has a typical characteristic of aggregate demand shock to the macroeconomic operation that is it stimulates the acceleration of economic growth and also brings the general price level up.However,the influence o fincr eased leverage on macroeconomic operations is m ainly concentrated in the short-term,and over time the influence of increas ed leverage on macroeconomic operations will gradually weaken.In addition,the short-term stimulus effect of increased leverage on output is obvious and relatively stable,while the short-term impact on inflation is gradually weakened by factors such as thetransformation of economic structure and the improvement of financial development in recent years.Empirical analysis also shows that simply relying on tightening monetary policy may not be able to achieve the purpose of reducing leverage.On the contrary,accelerating economic growth or maintaining a moderate inflation rate is a possible way to effectively reduce leverage.The second chapter illustrates the concept of long-term equilibrium leverage in China's macroeconomic operation,.which has the problem of excessively high leverage in the non-financial corporate sector,and the third chapter uses empirical analysis to further explain thatan increase in leverage will affect aggregate demand and affect the macro The stable operation of the economy shows signs of overheating.However,the increased leverage is unsustainable,and the financial risks accumulated by the highly leveraged economic operation model will eventually be exposed through various forms.Based on the research concept of "macro phenomena and micro foundation" in modern macroeconomics,this chapter chooses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model to start from the economic behavior at the micro individual level,construct a dynamic economic model at the macro aggregate level,and apply the model.It is used to study the characteristics of macroeconomic fluctuations under high leverage and the ability of highly leveraged economies to adjust and stabilize themselves in the face of adverse shocks.Through the simulation of the DSGE model in Chapter 4,it is found that the standard deviation of the main macroeconomic variables in the high leverage steady state is significantly larger than that in the low-leverage steady state.In addition to the harm of non-financial corporate sector leverage,it is also important to pay attention to the macro The dangers of economic stability.The main reason is that after the leverage of the non-financial corporate sector,funds can be used for production and speculation,but the leverage of the household sector is more investment in real est ate and real estate has the property of a bubble asset?which adversely affects macroeconomic stability.The social welfare level measured by the household utility function under high leverage is less than that of low leverage,which further illustrates that macroeconomic fluctuations are generally greater than these of low leverage under high leverage.In addition,various disturbances to economic activity through exogenous shock simulations can show that the volatility of the total output level of a highly leveraged steady state econorny is significantly greater than that of a low leveraged steady state,and that nominal prices and nominal exchange rates under low leveraged steady state Variable variable adjustment can absorb the effect of exogenous shocks on actual variables.When the debt leverage level of the economy re-aches a.relatively high level after being hit by unfavorable factors,the highly leveraged economy has poor anti-risk capabilities and weak self-stability.At this time:the highly leveraged economic structure itself has become the source of macro instability.First,it became the sword ofDamocies hanging on the head of economic growth.After the previous analysis explained the existence of the problem of high leverage in the Chinese economy.the impact and mechani sm of changes in leverage on macroeconomic operations,and the potential risks of a highly leveraged economic operating model,the fifth chapter of this article focuses on macro-prudential financial supervision The policy is to achieve the effect and approach of structural deleveraging to prevent risks and optimize resource allocation.Based on the research in the previous chapters,we can see that the main reason for the increase in the leverage ratio of China's non-financial sector is the increase in the leverage ratio of the non-financial enterprise sector,while China's non-financial enterprise sector has obvious characteristics of dual ownership economic structure.This chapter constructs a two-sector open economy DSGE model that includes state-owned enterpr ses and private enterprises to analyze how to use the macro-prudential supervisi on policy of demand-side management of funds to specifically restrain upstream state-owned enterprises from continuing to rapidly increase leverage,thereby causing Fnancial risks.Through the simul ation of the DSGE model,it is found that the leveraged loan tax as amacro-prudential poli cy for demand-side management is helpful to solve the problem of high leverage and high debt of state-owned enterprises and the imbalance of debt financing structures faced by state-owned and private enterprises.At a steady state level,under the intervention of the leveraged loan tax,loan funds were transferred from upstream state-owned enterprise sectors with relatively low productivity to downstre-am private enterprises with relatively high productivity.The repa.yment of loan funds between state-owned and private enterprises The role of allocation improves the efficiency of resource allocation:so that total factor productivity shows a stepwise upward trend.In the case of dynamic transfer,the redistribution effect of leveraged loan tax on the one hand screens the quality of investment projects through "invisible hands",on the otter hand,it suppresses the rate of new loans from the state-owned enteprise sector?and guides loan funds from the state-owned enterprise sector Flow to the private enterprise sector,which can alleviate the external financing difficulties of private enterprises,can also improve the profitability of financial institutions and increase the accumulation of capital.In addition,using leverage loan tax as a macro-prudential financial supervision tool,and the intervention of this policy tool,the social welfare level measured based on the household utility function has significantly improved,indicating that this policy intervention can stabilize economic and financial fluctuations.effect.At the same time,Chapter 5 also deals with the issue of policy coordination between macro-prudential supervision policy and monetary policy in demand-side management.The main conclusion is that,under the interference of supply-side shocks,the neutral and robust "wide currency+strict supervision" should be preferred.Policy mix.In addition,with regard to the choice of anchor variables for macroeconomic policies,macro-prudent.ial regulatory policies should focus on financial stability(new loans from state-owned enterprises and the growth rate of asset prices as anchor variables),while monetary policy should focus on economic stability(GDP growth rate).And inflation as anchor variables).The research in this article has three implications for the designation and adjustment of China's macroeconomic policies:First,monetary policy and macro-prudential regulatory policies.Relying on austerity monetary policy alone cannot complete the tasks of deleveraging and preventing and defusing financial risks.Instead,it will be counterproductive and lead to an increase in leverage.The reason is that austerity monetary policy will inhibit aggregate demand and reduce the level of total output so that norninal GDP as a denominator shrinks.At the same time,the economic downturn caused by austerity monetary policy reduces corporate profits and makes it difficult to cover the principal or interest of debt.Therefore,companies will tend to Yu borrowed new debt to pay off old debt.According to China's current debt distribution and composition,additional leveraged loan tax should be levied on the highly leveraged state-owned economic components of non-financial enterprises operating upstream of the industrial chain,that by mcreasing the external financing costs of non-financial enterprises operating on high leverage.Motivation to curb excessive borrowing by highly leveraged companies.Leverage loan tax can be used as a macro-prudential regulatory policy tool for fund demand-side management At the same time,attention should be paid to the coordination and cooperation of monetary policy and macro-prudential regulatory polici es.Under the conditions that monetary policy should focus on economic stability and macro-prudential supervision policies should focus on finuancial stability,the effective methodis to construct a neutral and robust policy combination model of "wide currency+ strict supervision" to replace the "tight currency+strict supervision" model.The dual austerity policy mix can achieve the dual purpose of stabilizing macroeconomic fluctuations and financial fluctuations.S econdly,when governing the problem of high leverage in the non-financial corporate sector,it is necessary to strengthen restrictions on the debt behavior of government departments,especially the means of standardizing and institutionalizing local government debt financing.For the time being,although government debt does not have the risk of a debt default,we must also pay attention to the crowding of private sector funds by the expansion of public sector debt.In addition,more attention should be paid to improving local government incentives.The championship system for the promotion of local government officials and the performance evaluation standards of officials based on GDP are the fundamental reasons for stimulating local government officials to rely on debt to promote local economic growth,and also the main cause of local government debt problems.Ther efore,a more scientific and comprehensive evaluation system for the performance of local officials should be established,and the contribution weight of factors such as GDP should be reduced At the same time,the local government leverage rate should be included as the evaluation standard in the evaluation system.thereby inhibiting local government officials from relying on debt financing to quickly stimulate the local economy Growing profit-seeking motivation.Third,be wary of household leverage.According to the numerical simulation and transmission mechani sm analysis of the DSGE model in this paper,we can see that the leverage of the household sector on macroeconomic stability is no less than that of the non-financial corporate sector.Increasing the leverage of the household sector to invest in the real estate market will drive up house prices and crowd out consumption.The property of real estate with bubble assets is prone to cause speculative behavior and financial fluctuations,while debt crowding cut of consumption will cause aggregate demand to contract and thus lead to a decline in aggregate output.Today,as the space for households to continue to increase leverage becomes increasingly saturated,the overheating of the real estate market is the reason for households to increase leverage Therefore,in the future,the real estate market regulation should be maint-ained.The innovation of this article is reflected in three aspects:First,based on the modeling ideas of the local adjustment model,the transnational panel data is used to construct the dynamic panel data model,and the short-term equilibrium equation and long-term equilibrium equation about the leverage ratio are obtained through transformation.Given the macroeconomic fundamentals,the long-term equilibrium equation of leverage is used to measure the long-term equilibrium value of leverage.Use the long-term equilibrium value of the leverage ratio to determine whether the current actual leverage ratio is low or high.Quantitatively,the increase in leverage in the non-financial sector since 20L2 was mainly caused by increased leverage in the non-financial corporate sector.According to calculations,about one-third of the leverage ratio of the non-financial corporate sector may be caused by problems such as "delinking from reality to imagination" or"funds idling."S econd,under the circum stance that the potential debt risk released in the process of structural deleveraging interacts with external shocks of global economic fluctuations,the DSGE model constructed in this paper includes financial friction in the credit market and external shocks in the international economic sector.In terms of constructing financial frictions,it also describes the financial frictions faced by the supply and demand sides of credit funds.Especially for the demand side of funds,the differences and connections between household liabilities and corporate liabilities,state-owned entoprise liabilities,and private enterprise liabilities are considered separately.In the international economic sector,it describes the fluctuations in world financial market s(world interest rate fluctuations)and changes in external demand(import and export trade)that have brought external shocks to China's macroeconomic stability.Third,it is proposed to impose additional leveraged loan tax on the highly leveraged state-owned economic components of non-financial companies operating upstream of the industrial chain,that is,by increasing the external financing costs of non-financial companies operating with high leverage,thereby suppressing excessive borrowing by highly leveraged enterprises motivation.Leveraged loan tax can be used as a macro-prudential regulatory policy tool for fund demand-side management. |
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