| The Fifth Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed that the development of science and technology should closely focus on the social economy,use innovation to accelerate the transformation of economic development methods,and put forward the market-oriented and enterprise-oriented innovation system.The convocation of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012 summarized it as the "innovation-driven development" strategy.With the development and implementation of this strategy,the IT companies has effectively promoted China’s high-tech industry.In response to the innovation strategy,China has promoted the Growth Enterprise Market(GEM)as a financing platform for high-growth emerging innovative enterprises.However,with large amounts of R&D projects,IT companies with large intangible assets are most in the growth stage,and the value of enterprises is significantly affected by potential fluctuations.According to its characteristics,the various existing enterprise value assessment methods are limited.Existing scholars have proposed the value composition of IT enterprises in GEM,which is divided into existing values and the future potential value.This article combines the cash flow method and the real options method to evaluate the different values of the IT companies in GEM.At the same time,in view of the characteristics of high growth and high income of IT enterprises in GEM,a gray forecasting model is used to predict the future cash flows of IT enterprises.Finally,selecting the public financial data of 10 IT companies listed on the GEM market,and use December 31,2018 as the evaluation benchmark date to empirically analyze the rationality of the evaluation model.The research finds that the valuation combining the cash flow method under the gray forecast model with the real option method can better reflect the true market value of the enterprise. |
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