The Research On The Forecasting Of Commercial Real Estate Market Demand Based On Gray Combination Model

With the development of economy and the rapid promotion of urbanization, theneeds of commercial real estate is increasing. Commercial real estate can bring highprofits margins, it makes many real estate investors, developers and operators enter intothis field, to drive a hot development boom, all kinds of commercial housing havesprung up in each city. Under this circumstances, the problems such as blind investment,high vacancy rate have come out. So we have to think about the market demand ofcommercial real estate. Researching the market demand and knowing the marketsituation can provide reference to program a city for the government and to decideinvestment scale for real estate enterprise. Therefore, it is of important theoretical andpractical significance.This thesis starts from the connotation and features of the commercial real estate,elaborates the concept, the classification, characteristics and the influence factors of thecommercial real estate market demand, and analyses the prediction methods and modelsas well. In succession, a new prediction model based on the gray Markov and themultiple linear regression is established, and the accuracy of the model is testified via avariety of precision tests. Finally, take the commercial real estate market demand of themain cities of Chongqing Municipality as an example, obtain the main factors affectingthe demand of the commercial real estate market via correlative analysis and greyrelational analysis, and then recommendations for the government and enterprises aremade which are based on the forecasting results. The study indicates that:(1) the graysystem theory applied to the analysis and prediction of the commercial real estatemarket demand is reliable and feasible, moreover the prediction accuracy of theproposed model is higher than the original one’s.(2) The main factors affecting thedemand of the commercial real estate market are the population of urban resident andthe workers’ average wage in Chongqing city.(3) The commercial real estate marketdemand of the main cities of Chongqing Municipality is still in demand, but the space isfinite.