Eliciting subjective probability under uncertainty: An economic experiment

This study uses a combination of statistical sampling techniques and a web-based economics experiment to evaluate hypotheses with regard to eliciting and combining subjective probability estimates. Demographic characteristics of participants including age, statistical background, risk preference, and Myers-Briggs Type Indicator have been collected.;Results show that knowledge is the core of experts' decision support system. Knowledge sharing and feedback make the subjective probability estimates more reliable. The Extroversion, Intuition, Thinking, and Judging type's people are the best to perform subjective probability assessment.;Finally, analyses show that weighting scheme and risk preference do not influence the forecast accuracy.