Experimental investigation of predictive probabilistic and temporal conflict avoidance displays

Inferring the future intentions and courses of numerous aircraft or ships at various points in time can be problematic for traffic controllers. In this thesis, a new graphical display concept is presented. The displays present predictive information about the times, locations, and probabilities of potential traffic conflicts using topological contours and continuous density graphs superimposed onto existing traffic information. 12 participants engaged in a ship control conflict avoidance task by performing a series of maneuvers to minimize the overall impact of potential conflicts. Results indicate that only during the initial trials participants used significantly fewer maneuvers to resolve potential conflicts and did so with better overall scores when using the new graphical display formats compared to the conventional format. Nevertheless, subjective ratings strongly indicated participants' preferences for the new graphical formats and revealed some interesting underlying strategies and potential applications of the displays for both air and ship traffic management.