| This thesis attempts to forecast short- to mid-term developments in the War on Terror America has been engaged in since 9/11. Using Cold War of the last century as a point of comparison to illuminate the War on Terror, common trends and the underlying logic of the two conflicts are explored in order to forecast where the War on Terror may be headed.;In conclusion, I summarize the findings of the thesis and speculate on possible developments in America's latest war effort, attempting to predict potential outcomes and the ways these outcomes are likely to be affected by policy decisions.;I start with researching the sources of conflict for the two wars and, based on historical evidence, find that essentially, both conflicts arose out of irreconcilable differences in the opponents' ideologies. I proceed to review the initial stages of the conflicts and conclude that in general, both the War on Terror and the Cold War developed through the same kind of algorithm: each side went through escalating steps through which grave ideological differences were exposed; subsequently, public opinion in support of each side's cause took shape; a triggering event occurred which elevated the conflict to open hostilities; this in turn developed policies which facilitated further conflict. Having established the comparability of the conflicts, I identify and compare several major factors which greatly influenced the development of the two wars. I then explore a key difference in the way the Cold War was fought---this difference helps in deducing short-term prospects for he current War on Terror. |
