From 'over the horizon' to the water's edge: Saudi Arabia's military planning and security relations after the first Gulf war

Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 set in motion a number of consequential events not only on Kuwait, but also on Iraq's other neighbors. This study examines the impact of Saddam's provocation on Saudi Arabia's security strategy and military planning between 1990 and 2000. The hypothesis specifically tests whether the Gulf war impacted the Kingdom's military planning in terms of its military expenditures and the manpower strength of its Armed Forces. To do so, the study examines Riyadh's military expenditures and the manpower strength of its Armed Forces between 1990 and 2000 compared to the period between 1985 and 1990. It also compares those measures in comparison to the military expenditures and the Armed Forces of Iraq's other neighbors (Turkey, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt). In order to provide a measurable effect of the war on the Kingdom's relations with western powers, the study examines Saudi Arabia's arms sales with its key western allies (the United States, United Kingdom, and France) between 1990 and 2000 compared to pre-Gulf war sales. This study informs the political-military decision-making process based on considerations of how Saudi Arabia reacted to the crisis in 1990 vis-a-vis its military planning and its relations with western military powers, and how Riyadh may respond to the security challenges currently being presented by Iran's reported pursuit of a nuclear weapons program.