| Local air pollution, climate change and energy security are three key policy issues in China's energy sector. The objectives of this research project are: (1) to develop a Chinese energy-economy model which is able to estimate GHG emissions and local air pollutant emissions over time; (2) to use this model to evaluate how to design policy instrument to meet China's emissions control and energy security goals; (3) to use a hybrid model---CIMS, as this incorporates improvements to both the top-down and bottom-up approaches for energy policy modelling.; This study uses CIMS, a technologically explicit and behaviourally realistic model as the modelling tool. The outputs of CIMS can inform decision makers of the effects of different policy actions due to changes in (1) technology stocks; (2) products or energy services; (3) fuel mixtures; and (4) the associated incremental costs. The study covers China by sector (industry, commercial, urban residential, rural residential, transportation, agriculture). Forecasts of growth and structure change are based on the reference scenario defined in the MARKAL China report to the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED). (Abstract shortened by UMI.)... |
