Settlement and subsistence in the Western Anasazi core area: Development and assessment of a risk response model (Arizona)

This research project focuses on the general question of human response to subsistence risk in the context of the mixed farmer-forager economy of the Western Anasazi of Northeastern Arizona. The time period for the analysis is A.D. 600--1150, while the specific area of study is the portion of northern Black Mesa researched by the Black Mesa Archaeological Project and the adjacent Long House Valley survey area examined by the Long House Valley Archaeological Project. Potential localized productivity is estimated through the use of interpolated paleoclimate data. Subsistence risk is estimated through reference to the absolute variance in localized productivity. Sensitivity to risk, and therefore likelihood of response to risk, is estimated through local population indices that increase as estimated relative population for the study area increases.; The analytic methods employed include spatial interpolation methods, geographic information system (GIS) enabled spatial data processing, analysis and visualization, and simulation-based statistical methods for hypothesis testing. In combination, these methods facilitate the integration and analysis of multiple large datasets in a unified, spatially enabled, analysis environment.; The results obtained in the analysis are consistent with hypotheses related to the z-score model, a model of risk-response based upon variance estimation and location of mean harvest rates to requirements. Under conditions of population decline on northern Black Mesa, high-variance locations are selected. In contrast, during conditions of population growth, low-variance locations are selected. Detailed diachronic models of locational response to other environmental variables have also been produced and interpreted in the course of the analysis, addressing relationships between vegetation community, elevation, and water availability.; The use of recently developed spatial analytic methods, large extant archaeological datasets, and detailed environmental data allow for the development and testing of archaeological hypotheses that are based upon evolutionary ecological theory---ultimately providing an illustration of one approach to the application of evolutionary ecology models to the archaeological record.