Referendum: A dead letter. Prospects for self-determination in Western Sahara

Western Sahara has been granted the dubious distinction of Africa's last colony. Long a victim of imperial enterprise, the territory was annexed by Morocco in 1975 Just as Spain withdrew. Despite international protest affirming the Saharawi people's right to a referendum of self-determination, still the question of Western Sahara lingers, frozen in time. This paper will demonstrate that a referendum no longer offers a way forward for three reasons: it is unlikely a referendum will be held due to Morocco's unwillingness to cooperate; if a referendum went forward, it is improbable that it would prove free and fair given Moroccan attempts to undermine the process; and if a successful referendum took place, it is unlikely the international community would be prepared to enforce Saharawi sovereignty. As such, alternatives must be sought. An examination of possible scenarios suggests limited autonomy, as a result of an Algero-Moroccan rapprochement, is Western Sahara's most likely trajectory.