Examining principles of social psychology to predict improved relations between conflicting international groups

This dissertation systematically and empirically demonstrates the relevance of applying social psychological principles to managing international conflicts. It examined the outcomes of real international conflict management attempts to identify commonalities across the events. Analyses were based on Jacob Bercovitch's original data set of international conflict management attempts from 1945–1995.; Using multivariate analyses, this research explored the effects of contact between international parties under certain conditions and determined whether situational variables could predict an improvement in the relationship between conflicting parties. Second, this research exemplified bridging theories of social psychology into the international conflict management context. Allport's Contact Hypothesis conditions provided a useful model for guiding this research. The Contact Hypothesis conditions propose that improving relations between conflicting groups requires intergroup contact in a cooperative environment that is sanctioned by an authority and encourages personal acquaintance and equal status. The independent variables operationalized the Contact Hypothesis conditions, and additional situational variables were examined separately.; Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the utility of each Contact Hypothesis condition to predict membership in one of two categories (improvement in relationship, or no improvement in relationship). Power equality and negotiator rank equality were found to be useful in predicting improvement in the conflicting relationship. In addition, counter to the hypothesis, having had fewer past conflict managements (i.e., less contact between two parties) was more often associated with improved relations.; Gamma statistics indicated that an improved relationship was associated with negotiations, interstate conflicts, conflict managements where there was no United Nations involvement, conflicting parties with similar political systems, and both parties initiating the last conflict management, rather than with the opposite comparison conditions. A post hoc analysis indicated a positive relationship between the number of conflict managements and the number of fatalities that occurred as a result of the conflict.; Discussion of these findings and limitations of this research, and recommendations for future research are presented. Overall, findings support the importance of recognizing psychological dynamics such as perceptions, identity, and human needs during the international conflict management process.