California water policy: Toward overshoot or sustainability

Water policy in California appears to have arrived at a critical juncture in history. An important question for policy development and implementation is: "Is California water policy heading toward overshoot or sustainability?" To answer this question, the present analysis addresses several underlying questions. Is fundamental change occurring in the context for water policy, or is the state simply experiencing another chapter in the colorful history of water in the West? If fundamental changes are taking place, are they leading toward a new basis for water policy---sustainability---or are they pushing the state further into what systems analysts call "overshoot"?;This inquiry examines the policy framework in the context of underlying physical, historical, and social factors. It then asks: "Are the guiding principles of water management and policy in California, as reflected in the laws and institutions in the state, capable of responding to the changing context?" In short, "are they leading toward overshoot or sustainability?" To answer this broad question, a series of important sub-questions including the issue of whether changes occurring are actually fundamental or simply part of the "noise" in the policy process.;This dissertation sets forth a hypothesis, presented as an argument to be tested, that the changes occurring in California water policy are in fact fundamental in nature and that the policy reaction may be significant for broader resource policy. Five key factors influence water policy: law, science, technology, economics, and politics. These factors are all set in a historical context. The argument that fundamental change is occurring is tested against the role and interaction of these five key factors. As such, the analysis is interdisciplinary in nature, with the common thread a focus on the policy implications of critical driving factors.;The concept of sustainability and sustainable resource management is examined as a policy and management approach and theoretical framework. The specific findings in the case of California water policy may be applicable in a broader context for natural resources policy.