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Three essays on investment and risk assessment in emerging-market countries

Posted on:2003-12-13Degree:Ph.DType:Thesis
University:Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (Tufts University)Candidate:Schrage, Burkhard NorbertFull Text:PDF
GTID:2469390011477756Subject:Economics
Abstract/Summary:
This dissertation is structured into three distinct essays.; The first essay presents an empirical analysis of two contrasting research streams in the field of privatization. Mainstream research suggests that less state ownership and control as well as greater exposure to market forces increase enterprise value by aligning more closely its incentives and behaviors with those of profit-maximizing shareholders. An alternative view hypothesizes that performance may improve when the state retains a substantial equity stake and commits to intervention in relevant markets of privatizing enterprises. Using an event study methodology for 204 investment decisions of privatized telecom firms, we find tepid support for the mainstream view and find strong support for the alternative view in emerging-market contexts.; The second essay examines the bonding hypothesis which holds that foreign firms cross-list securities in the U.S. to signal adherence to higher standards of corporate conduct than those required at home. We employ multivariate tests of this implied negative relationship between levels of U.S. cross-listing by firms and the quality of the firms' home country corporate governance regime (“HCCGR”) using a sample of 47 countries, their levels of U.S. cross-listing, and measures of HCCGR quality from 1997 and 2001.{09}Generally, we observe little evidence supporting the bonding hypothesis in countries with very low quality or high quality HCCGRs. The bonding hypothesis finds some support in the case of cross-listing firms from a relatively small group of emerging-market countries with HCCGR quality in the mid-range.; The third essay empirically tests the rational partisan cycle model in emerging-market countries. Using parametric and nonparametric analyses of sovereign risk ratings and bond spreads, we examine 19 developing countries holding 39 presidential elections from 1987 to 2000. We generally find significant support for differences in left- and right-wing partisan orientation. Ratings tend to be lower for left-wing governments generally, and right-wing governments are substantially downgraded in election years where polls indicate a left wing victory. We find similarly consistent results from the bond spreads analyses. Together, the results of this study provide strong evidence of partisan cycles in emerging-market countries.
Keywords/Search Tags:Emerging-market countries, Essay
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