Risk analysis of merchant shipping traffic and predictive modelling of vessel casualty rates in the Canadian Atlantic region

This thesis examines risk levels over the period from 1988 to 1999 associated with merchant shipping traffic activity in the Canadian Atlantic region.; Spatially, the highest vessel casualty rate was found in Canadian Coast Guard maritime search and rescue statistical area 001 (Cap à l'Aigle–Sept Îles). The aggregate vessel casualty rate for this area is 0.95 casualties per 1000 trips.; From 1988 to 1999 the number of vessel casualties dropped from a total of 33 in 1988 to only 3 in 1999. The vessel casualty rate also decreased significantly from 2.95 to 0.27 casualties per 1000 trips over the period from 1988 to 1999.; Bulk carrier vessels account for the highest number of casualties.; It was determined that merchant vessels in the age group 20 years and above incurred significantly higher casualty rates compared to vessels in the age group 0 to 14. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)...