| The environmental destruction caused by traditional methods of generating electricity and the environmental benefits of using renewable energy technologies are well-known. In additional to the environmental benefits, small, decentralized renewable energy systems are often the most economical way to electrify the rural areas of developing countries, where most of the world's unelectrified population lives. However, diffusion of these systems is proceeding very slowly and many of these projects have failed. This dissertation examines the hypothesis that an important determinant of the success of these projects is the extent to which they are compatible with the social and cultural attributes of the communities in which they are located. The hypothesis was examined by evaluating sixteen solar, wind and hybrid electrification projects in Mexico, using a procedure which rates projects according to criteria which reflect technical, economic and financial, environmental, and sociocultural factors deemed necessary to achieve success. Reasons for poor ratings within these criteria were then used to determine six preconditions for project success. The evaluation indicates that most of the wind and hybrid projects visited had low success ratings because of technical problems. The solar home system projects experienced few technical problems, yet many were unsuccessful. Most of the projects were unsustainable due to lack of financial resources, insufficient financial mechanisms, poor user training. In none of the communities were the projects economically viable, nor were they compatible with the needs of the users. The future success of even the most successful projects seen is doubtful because of the lack of provision for any maintenance by trained technicians and the scarcity of financial resources. A direct relationship between failure at the sociocultural criteria and overall project failure was not found. In most cases, failure at particular criteria could be attributed to the project developers' inability to fulfill social and cultural aspects of the preconditions for success, thus establishing an indirect but causal relationship between sociocultural attributes of communities and project success. |
