| In northwestern Pennsylvania, Cameron, Elk, Forest, McKean and Cameron Counties contain extensive state and federal lands, including the Allegheny National Forest. The timber and recreation from these lands provide a significant contribution to the region's economy. This thesis compares the timber and recreation contributions of public land within the five-county economy. These current impacts are then contrasted to probable impacts 40 years in the future, including a reduction of all timber harvesting on the National Forest and the development of a large scale resort on the Forest.; The combination of federal and state timber from all public lands in the five county region generated {dollar}25 million in regional impacts in 1999. Tourism on these public lands supported another {dollar}28 million in output for a combined {dollar}53 million impact from these public lands. Over a forty-year period, the combination of higher timber prices, a return of harvesting to higher sustainable levels on the Allegheny, and modest increases in recreation use on public lands will increase these impacts to {dollar}145 million. If timber harvesting on the Allegheny were to cease, these future impacts of the region's public lands would only reach {dollar}54 million, with tourism being the primary economic output. A large ski resort, serving a half million visitors could generate an additional {dollar}31 million in regional impacts, raising the combined public land impacts to {dollar}85 million.; Another view of the present and future public land contributions is provided on the basis of regional employment impacts. Currently, all public land activities supported 644 jobs in the vice-county region, 164 were timber based and 480 were tourism based. By 2040, the timber based employment impact could to 717 jobs, with recreation providing 602 jobs, for a total of 1318 jobs. The loss of the Allegheny's timber could cost the region 594 jobs circa 2040, whereas the addition of a ski resort would add 722 jobs.; In 1999, timber based employment in the five-county region averaged {dollar}25.8 thousand annually per job, while recreation averaged {dollar}12.2 thousand annually per job, placing public land supported employment at an annual average of {dollar}15.7 thousand per job. Should timber-based employment increase over the next 40 years, the public land average wage would rise to {dollar}19.6 thousand per job. If the Allegheny ceased timber harvesting, the average annual wage impacts from all public lands would fall to {dollar}14.5 thousand per job. The addition of new jobs through a ski resort would further reduce the average annual wage impacts from public lands to {dollar}12.8 thousand per job.; A further evaluation of these present and future situations was pursued in terms of the regional economy's diversity indices. The Shannon-Weaver employment diversity index was lower for the primary wood processing industries under the proposed timber forecasts for 2040. However, the overall diversity did not change, showing that the public land impacts were a relatively small component of the overall regional economy. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)... |
