Research On Timber Supply And Demand Balance In Liaoning Province

With the rapid development of social economy, people living standard rise ceaselessly,resource is a bottleneck for the development of national economy. Timber is an indispensablematerial in every sector of national economic, but also the essential data in people’s dailylife.The relationship between timber supply and demand balance is very important to thenational economic development and forestry system stable.Timber, as a kind of special commodity, timber has its characteristic, such as regionallimitations and price to supply binding, these characteristics decides that it is difficult toimprove timber supply in short-term. Timber demand is derivative and lack of elastic, timberhas less of substitute, so timber supply can not be rapid expansion in short term, maintain thebalance of supply and demand system of timber is very difficult. Northeast China is one of thekey forestry counties, but also an important timber production base. Liaoning province is oneof the three provinces in northeast China, the timber supply and demand balance is importantfor its timber market’s stable development to Liaoning province. So it is necessary to study theLiaoning province timber supply and demand.This paper summarized the predecessors for timber based on the study of the supply anddemand, and analyzes timber’s characteristic on supply and demand. Using statisticalyearbook of timber supply data released in Liaoning province and construction, paper making,man-made board industry etc timber industry timber demand data, using cost structuremethod to catty out empirical studies on the timber supply and demand during2001-2010inLiaoning province. This study reveals the imbalance between supply and demand, the presentsituation of the contradiction between timber supply and demand increased year by year.Through the selection of all the factors as variables in timber supply and demand system inLiaoning province, we establish the supply and demand system of timber simultaneousequations model, and use the two stages least square method (2SLS method) to estimate theparameters.Though this research we can find the main influence factors and their effect.Using the trend decomposition method to analyze timber price overall fluctuating characterswe set up cobweb model for the price of timber in Liaoning province to investigate trend ofchange on timber price in its supply and demand system. Using three exponential smoothingmodel to carry out the prediction research on timber supply and demand and price during2011-2015in Liaoning province. Finally, based on the present situation of forest resources inLiaoning province, puts forward the measures on alleviating the way of effective ofcontradiction of timber supply and demand for Liaoning.Research conclusions are as follows:(1)During2001-2010the general trend of timber supply ability continuously strengthen,timber import be more stable in Liaoning province. Its supply ability mainly rely on thetimber supply production capacity, timber imports as assistant method. Timber totaldemand is rising and very obvious, except for2001,2004, and2006three years, otheryears timber are in short supply, and great gap between supply and demand. (2)The timber price of Liaoning province, timber imports, annual per capita income,population growth rate, new building area, import timber price, forest investment, foreststock volume are the influence factors for timber supply and demand system in Liaoningprovince, The timber price of Liaoning province, import timber price, annual per capitaincome, population growth rate, this four factors have the important influence for timbersupply and demand in Liaoning province.(3) The timber price fluctuation in Liaoning province belongs to a more stable type no matterfrom short-term or long-term perspective. Its type belongs to the convergence cobweb,timber price change over time to the equilibrium price convergence gradually.(4) During2011-2015the contradiction between timber supply and demand increased inLiaoning province, timber price growth obviously, go against to the stable of timbersupply and demand system development.(5) The contradiction between timber supply and demand can be solved through the fourapproaches: improve the area timber supply ability, strengthen the cultivation of forestresources, increase the volume of trees; Strengthening the high intensive management,adjust the forest management idea; In a certain period of time, the proper enlargementtimber imports is necessary; Using alternative resources reasonably, and reducing timberdemand.