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An evolutionary approach to modelling technological change

Posted on:1998-01-21Degree:Ph.DType:Thesis
University:Queen's University (Canada)Candidate:Arthurs, DavidFull Text:PDF
GTID:2469390014477952Subject:Economics
Abstract/Summary:
The purpose of this thesis is to use the biologically inspired techniques of genetic algorithms to illustrate some of the biologically inspired predictions of evolutionary economics concerning the process of technological change.; The process of technological change has been described as 'creative destruction' where the old must make way for the new in order to realize economic progress. However, the current rate and magnitude of technological change has made it difficult for both managers and economists to understand and cope with the significant and pervasive impacts.; Evolutionary economics has emerged as a field that is particularly suited to the analysis of technological change. It views the economy as operating through mechanisms of variety generation, selection of 'good' behaviours, and transmission of those behaviours to other economic agents. It explains economic performance without the problematic assumptions of traditional economics concerning the intelligence, rationality, and motivations of economic agents.; Genetic algorithms are a technique for numerical optimization that manipulates strings of numbers in a manner analogous to the functioning of DNA in biological evolution. They can be used to create computer implemented 'artificial adaptive agents' existing in 'artificial worlds', which mimic the behaviour of economic agents in the real world. These simulations can help in illustrating the predictions of evolutionary economics concerning technological change.; This thesis makes three significant contributions to the study of technological change using evolutionary economics: (1) The introduction of a model which aids in the description and understanding of the process of technological change from an evolutionary point of view; (2) The creation of a computer program which simulates the process of technological change in a simple artificial economy; and (3) The presentation of results from the simulations which illustrate how evolutionary economic systems operate and help in understanding the process of technological change.
Keywords/Search Tags:Technological change, Evolutionary, Economic, Process
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