The impact of economic, political, and international factors on urban primacy

Scope and method of study. The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that have significant impact on urban primacy. Several factors affect the concentration of people in the largest city. One of the significant contributions of this study lies in the fact that it considers economic, political, international, and demographic aspects that can help explain the rise and decline of urban primacy. Several hypotheses are tested, including the hypothesis of a curvilinear relationship between economic development and urban primacy. Regression results of panel data and cross-sectional analysis are reported.;Findings and conclusions. Panel-data analyses are consistent with the economic determination of urban primacy. A larger GDP combined with a larger population and land area have an expected negative effect on urban primacy. At low level of economic development, GDP has a positive effect on urban primacy; among most developed countries, it appears to have a negative effect. This study finds a modest support for the curvilinear hypothesis. The coefficient of GDP per capita is positive and significant while that of the square of GDPC per capita is negative but significant only in one equation. Education and capital city have positive effects on urban primacy. Although the share of labor outside agricultural does not show significant impact on urban primacy, it has a significant positive effect on the concentration of people in the largest city of a country. Foreign direct investment does not show any significant impact except when independent variables are observed at an earlier period of time. Urban-rural disparity shows a negative impact which contradicts urban bias theory. With regard to cross-sectional analysis, exports have a strong negative impact on urban primacy. Dictatorship variable is significant and positive. Bureaucratic efficiency is generally significant and negative. Political stability variable shows significance when bureaucratic efficiency variable is not included. World system position variables show some support for the world system hypothesis.