A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC, DISTRIBUTIONAL, AND POLITICAL EFFECTS ON VOTING TURNOUT IN THAILAND, 1976-1979

The study uses quantitative data on a stratified random sample of 94 districts in 30 Thai provinces to examine the value of three models in explaining differences in voting rates across districts at a single point in time, and in inter-election changes in voting rates.;The dissertation employs multiple regression techniques to compare models based on social mobilization, on distributional equality, on political setting, and a synthesized model drawing on elements of the three constituent models. The hypothesis of a positive relationship between socio-economic change and turnout rates is strongly supported in high-growth districts, and less strongly in the general sample. A positive relationship between land distribution (including both tenancy rates and landholding rates) is fond in the 1976 election. However, this relationship disappears in 1979. Several possible factors responsible for this change in turnot patterns are discussed. The effect of one of these factos, violence directed against the Farmers' Federation of Thailand, is tested and fond not related to turnout patterns at a statistically significant level. Political setting variables exhibit the hypothesized positive effect upon turnout rates. Districts in multi-constituency provinces have higher rates of voter turnout than do those in single-constituency provinces. Party competition also stimulates turnout: districts which are located in constituencies where multiple parties win Parliamentary seats exhibit higher voting rates than do constituencies where a single party dominates the election.